Bitcoin's $1M Surge: Fed YCC and Trump Policies Drive Dollar Devaluation

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a prominent figure in cryptocurrency markets, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028, driven by a combination of Federal Reserve policy shifts and the Trump administration’s influence. The forecast hinges on the Fed’s potential adoption of yield curve control (YCC), a monetary tool that would allow the central bank to directly target long-term interest rates, and a broader credit surge estimated at $15.2 trillion. These developments, Hayes argues, could devalue the U.S. dollar while channeling capital into risk assets like Bitcoin.

The catalyst for this scenario is the recent confirmation of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board. Miran, a vocal advocate for Bitcoin, has emphasized the Fed’s “third mandate”—maintaining moderate long-term interest rates—as a statutory requirement. Hayes interprets this as a signal that the Fed may pivot toward YCC, a policy not used since the 1950s. “With Fed board member Miran now confirmed, the MSM is preparing the world for the Fed’s ‘third mandate,’ which is essentially yield curve control,” Hayes tweeted, linking YCC to a Bitcoin price surge to $1 million .

The Trump administration has amplified this narrative. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a proponent of YCC, criticized the Fed in a September op-ed for neglecting its mandate to moderate long-term rates. Hayes notes that Trump’s economic agenda, including aggressive stimulus measures and potential trade tariffs, could force the Fed to adopt accommodative policies to manage inflationary pressures. This, in turn, would weaken the dollar and boost demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat devaluation .

Supporting this thesis, Hayes highlights the U.S. government’s growing debt and the need for increased liquidity. The Treasury has been draining its checking account (TGA) and relying on “extraordinary measures” to avoid borrowing limits, reducing the TGA balance from $750 billion to $450 billion in recent months. This liquidity, Hayes argues, will flood the economy, creating a capital surplus that favors risk assets. “More dollars floating around and I believe that’s positive for liquidity in the market,” he stated in a Fortune interview .

The Fed’s dovish signals further bolster the case for Bitcoin’s ascent. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires in May 2026, and Hayes anticipates a pro-Trump successor who might prioritize YCC. Negative real interest rates under such a framework could accelerate capital outflows from traditional assets, with Bitcoin as a prime beneficiary. “If the Fed were to adopt YCC, real interest rates would likely turn negative,” Hayes explained, noting that this would drive capital into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies .

Hayes’ prediction aligns with broader macroeconomic trends. Bitcoin has already shown resilience, trading near $105,000 as of late 2025, while institutional demand and on-chain metrics indicate strong accumulation. A recent $680 million institutional Bitcoin purchase underscores growing confidence in the asset’s long-term prospects. Analysts suggest that a Trump-era policy shift, combined with the Fed’s potential pivot, could create the conditions for Bitcoin to break through psychological and technical barriers, reaching unprecedented levels by 2028.

[1] Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) on X, September 16, 2025 (https://twitter.com/CryptoHayes/status/jlPQZJ0cHm)

[2] Stephen Miran’s congressional hearing remarks (https://www.bloomberg.com/feeds/federal-reserve-board-hearing)

[3] Scott Bessent’s op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, September 5, 2025 (https://www.wsj.com/scott-bessent-fed-mandate)

[4] Arthur Hayes interview with Fortune, May 20, 2025 (https://fortune.com/arthur-hayes-bitcoin-2028)

[5] Federal Reserve’s 2025 policy statements (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetary-policy)

[6] U.S. Treasury’s TGA balance reports (https://www.treasurer.gov/treasury-general-account)

[7] CoinMarketCap Bitcoin price data (https://coinmarketcap.com/cryptocurrency/bitcoin/)