Bitcoin's $118k Hurdle: Catalyst for Bull Run or Precipice of Pullback?
Bitcoin’s price has entered a critical juncture, with analysts highlighting a specific threshold that could catalyze a significant upward move. As of late September 2025, BitcoinBTC-- (BTC) is consolidating near $115,000–$117,000, having recently tested key resistance levels after a series of volatile swings. The cryptocurrency’s trajectory hinges on a decisive breakout above $118,000, a level identified by multiple on-chain and technical indicators as pivotal for confirming renewed bullish momentum[1].
The $118,000 threshold is not arbitrary but is supported by convergence in metrics such as the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. The STH cost basis, which reflects the average purchase price of investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, currently sits at $117,113, indicating a dynamic resistance zone. A sustained close above this level would signal accumulation by short-term traders, historically preceding extended rallies[4]. Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio suggests Bitcoin could still rise to $123,000 before entering overbought territory, reinforcing the potential for a multi-week bullish phase[4].
On-chain activity further underscores the significance of $118,000. Analysts like Joao Wedson of Alphractal have emphasized that two proprietary metrics—the CVDD Channel and the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price—have historically identified $117,000 as a zone of strong interest and indecision. These tools, which combine historical price data with Fibonacci projections, have accurately pinpointed resistance levels in Bitcoin’s past cycles. Wedson argues that a clear, sustained break above $118,000 would validate the resumption of a bull run, with potential targets extending beyond $130,000[5].
Market structure also points to the importance of this level. Bitcoin has faced repeated rejections near $110,000–$113,000, with bearish divergences in the relative strength index (RSI) and high sell-volume activity suggesting short-term profit-taking. However, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (SMA) currently converge around $106,000–$108,000, forming a potential support cluster. A successful breakout above $118,000 could trigger a retest of the August 2025 all-time high near $123,640, supported by long-term bullish indicators such as the 200-day SMA[10].
Despite the technical optimism, caution persists. Exchange order-book data reveals thickening liquidity around $116,500 and $119,000, raising the possibility of short-term volatility. Material Indicators, a trading research firm, warns that the current move may resemble an “exit pump” rather than accumulation, with short-term gains potentially overshadowing longer-term trends[1]. Additionally, Bitcoin’s recent consolidation below $110,000 has sparked concerns about a deeper correction, with historical patterns suggesting a 14–18% pullback if key support levels fail[10].
The broader macroeconomic context adds nuance. The Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle, which began in 2025, has bolstered risk-on sentiment, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hitting record highs. Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional asset classes has intensified, with analysts noting that rate cuts near all-time highs have historically led to +14% gains in the S&P 500 within 12 months[1]. This environment could amplify Bitcoin’s upside if the $118,000 barrier is convincingly breached, aligning with broader market dynamics.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s next move will be defined by its ability to clear $118,000. A sustained breakout would validate the convergence of on-chain, technical, and macroeconomic signals, potentially propelling the cryptocurrency toward $130,000. Conversely, failure to overcome this level could trigger a retest of $105,000–$107,000, where historical support and moving averages congregate. Investors are advised to monitor liquidity clusters and volume profiles as key confirmatory metrics[1].
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