Bitcoin’s $110k Defense Faces $22 Billion Options Expiry Test

Bitcoin fell below $110,000 on September 26, 2025, marking a six-week low as the cryptocurrency market braced for a $22 billion options expiry event. The price decline, which saw Bitcoin trading at $109,552.6 by 02:20 ET, followed a week of volatility driven by large-scale liquidations in derivatives markets. Over $1.5 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out earlier in the week, exacerbating downward pressure ahead of the expiry title7^[4]. The drop came amid heightened uncertainty around U.S. inflation data and the potential for a government shutdown, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and the Fed’s policy trajectory remaining focal points for investors title7^[4].

The options expiry, scheduled for 08:00 UTC on Friday, concentrated significant open interest on bullish contracts. Deribit data showed $17 billion in Bitcoin options maturing, with 81% of put contracts set at $110,000 or lower. Analysts noted that if Bitcoin failed to hold above this level, bearish bets could gain a $1 billion advantage, while a close between $110,000 and $112,000 would balance call and put positions at $1.4 billion each . The 30-day delta skew for puts at 13% indicated a premium for bearish strategies, contrasting with the prevalence of bullish options .

Ethereum (ETH) mirrored Bitcoin’s decline, falling 1.9% to $3,922.83 and nearing its lowest level in seven weeks. Altcoins such as XRP, Solana, and Cardano also recorded sharp losses, with Ethereum ETF outflows exceeding $300 million this week . The broader crypto market shed over $100 billion in value, reflecting broader risk aversion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s futures market remained stable, with a 5% premium and $79 billion in open interest, suggesting neutral positioning ahead of the expiry title8^[5].

Market participants are closely watching the interplay between institutional activity and macroeconomic factors. Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $241 million amid cautious optimism, with investors viewing the dip as a potential entry point title8^[5]. However, rising geopolitical risks, including the looming U.S. government shutdown, have heightened caution. The Fed’s revised Q2 GDP growth to 3.8% annualized also tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts, adding to market jitters title7^[4]. Additionally, stablecoin demand in China, with Tether trading at a 0.3% premium to the USD/CNY rate, underscored the cautious sentiment title8^[5].

Technical analysis highlights the $110,000 level as critical. Order-book liquidity indicates a “magnet” effect at this level, with concentrated bids potentially triggering further liquidations if support fails . The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, at 45, reflects a neutral but fear-leaning sentiment, exacerbated by Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to traditional assets like the S&P 500 and gold . Analysts caution that the expiry could intensify volatility, with Bitcoin likely to consolidate between $110,000 and $116,000 until October .

The expiry event underscores the crypto market’s sensitivity to structured products and macroeconomic signals. While institutional adoption of Bitcoin and Ethereum continues, the interplay between derivatives activity and broader economic uncertainty remains a key driver of short-term price action. Investors are advised to monitor the PCE data and the Fed’s policy trajectory for directional clues as the market navigates this critical juncture.