¿Es el Bitcoin que está por debajo de $100,000 una oportunidad de compra o un precipicio?

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has sparked a critical debate: Is the current pullback below $100,000 a strategic entry point for long-term investors, or does it signal the onset of a deeper correction? To answer this, we must dissect Bitcoin's historical four-year boom-bust cycles, its evolving dominance over altcoins, and the systemic risks haunting the crypto ecosystem. By aligning these factors with macroeconomic and institutional trends, we can assess whether the $100,000 level represents a cyclical inflection point or a warning sign.

The Evolution of Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle

Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle, driven by halving events, has long been a cornerstone of its price dynamics. Halvings-events that reduce the block reward for miners by 50%-create artificial scarcity, historically triggering bull runs. For instance, the 2012 halving saw Bitcoin surge from $13 to $1,152 within a year, while the 2016 halving propelled it from $664 to $17,760. The 2020 halving further amplified this pattern, with Bitcoin peaking at $67,549 within 18 months.

However, the 2024 halving deviated from this script. Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin had already broken its all-time high before the event, and the post-halving rally has been unusually steady without sharp corrections seen in 2018 and 2022. This shift reflects a maturing market: institutional investors now treat Bitcoin as a long-term portfolio asset rather than a speculative play, dampening volatility. Yet, the traditional four-year cycle's predictive power is waning. Factors like diminishing halving impacts, macroeconomic tailwinds (e.g., Fed policy shifts), and Bitcoin's growing correlation with traditional assets like the Nasdaq have redefined its price drivers.

Bitcoin's Outperformance and the Diminishing "Altcoin Season"

Bitcoin's dominance over altcoins has surged in recent cycles, a trend accelerated by institutional adoption. In 2025, Bitcoin's market share stood at 59.03%, down slightly from its 61.4% peak but still historically elevated. This contrasts with past cycles, where altcoin seasons-periods of capital rotation into smaller cryptocurrencies-typically followed Bitcoin's peak. For example, in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin dominance dipped below 55% as altcoins like Ethereum and Binance Coin surged according to research.

The current cycle, however, lacks this dynamic. Despite over 19,000 altcoins in circulation, institutional capital has remained concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with mid- and long-tail tokens struggling to attract liquidity according to analysis. This is partly due to regulatory clarity favoring Bitcoin ETFs, which have drawn $60 billion in inflows since 2024. Yet, the Q4 2025 market crash-triggered by Fed hawkishness and leveraged liquidations-exposed vulnerabilities. Ethereum fell 9.7% in a single day, while Solana and Binance Coin dropped over 8%, erasing $1.3 trillion in market value according to market data. While Bitcoin's dominance held relatively firm, the synchronized collapse of altcoins underscores the fragility of the ecosystem.

Ecosystem Risks: Project Failures, Liquidity, and Regulatory Uncertainty

The Q4 2025 downturn was not merely a market correction but a systemic stress test. DeFi protocols, stablecoins, and even major exchanges faced crises. Tether's credibility was further eroded by S&P Global's downgrade, raising concerns about its ability to maintain its peg under stress. Meanwhile, macroeconomic headwinds-such as Japan's potential rate hike and the Fed's "higher-for-longer" policy-exacerbated risk-off sentiment.

Regulatory shifts also played a pivotal role. U.S. banking agencies issued updated guidance, allowing banks to engage in crypto activities provided they adhere to "safe and sound" practices. While this fosters institutional adoption, it also introduces uncertainty. For example, the SEC's approval of generic listing standards for crypto ETPs has created a regulatory gray area, with some projects facing delisting risks.

Is $100,000 a Strategic Entry Point?

Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin's four-year cycle could still justify a long-term buy. The 2024 halving's pre-rally and the current pullback align with the "accumulation phase" seen in prior cycles. However, red flags persist. The Q4 2025 crash revealed overleveraged positions and thin liquidity, particularly in altcoins. Additionally, Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets-driven by macroeconomic factors-means its price is now more susceptible to external shocks than internal supply dynamics according to analysis.

For patient investors, the $100,000 level could represent a golden opportunity if macroeconomic conditions stabilize. Institutional-grade ETFs and regulatory clarity are likely to attract capital back into Bitcoin, especially if Fed rate cuts materialize in 2026. However, the risks of a prolonged bear market remain, particularly if geopolitical tensions or project failures escalate.

Conclusion: Balancing Cyclical Optimism with Prudence

Bitcoin's four-year cycle, while evolving, retains its core logic: scarcity and institutional adoption drive long-term value. The current pullback below $100,000 may be a cyclical inflection point, but it is not without risks. Investors must weigh Bitcoin's historical resilience against the fragility of the broader crypto ecosystem. For those with a multi-year horizon, dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin at this level could prove strategic-provided they remain vigilant about macroeconomic shifts and regulatory developments.

In the end, the precipice or opportunity narrative hinges on one question: Is the market buying time, or time buying the market?