Bilibili Surges 9.3% on Explosive Call Volume and Bullish Momentum – What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Bilibili (BILI) surges 9.34% to $31.895, hitting a 52-week high of $32.50
• 42,000 call contracts traded—1.8x average volume, with 32-strike calls dominating
• RSI at 82.16 signals overbought conditions, while MACD (0.56) and bullish Kline patterns confirm momentum

Bilibili’s explosive intraday rally has captivated traders, with the stock surging nearly 9.4% to $31.90—the highest level since late 2025. The surge coincides with a record 42,000 call contracts traded, 1.8x the average volume, and a pre-market price jump attributed to Jefferies’ bullish note. Technical indicators and options data suggest a continuation of the upward trend, but risks loom as the stock nears its 52-week high.

Options Call Frenzy Drives Bilibili’s Sharp Rally
Bilibili’s 9.34% surge is directly tied to a surge in call option buying, with 42,000 contracts traded—1.8x the average intraday volume. The 32-strike call options (BILI20260116C32) dominate activity, with 612,800 in turnover and a 590.91% price change ratio. This frenzy aligns with pre-market news of a 3% jump on Jefferies’ upgrade, though the firm’s JavaScript-blocked content obscures specifics. The stock’s 79% nine-month gain and 52-week high proximity ($32.50) further amplify bullish sentiment.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Momentum
• MACD: 0.56 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.028, Histogram: 0.532 (expanding)
• RSI: 82.16 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $22.59–$28.56 (price at 31.90, outside upper band)
• 200D MA: $23.20 (far below), 30D MA: $25.68 (support)

Bilibili’s technicals scream continuation: RSI at 82.16 and MACD divergence suggest momentum remains intact. The 32-strike call (BILI20260116C32) and 31-strike call (BILI20260116C31) are top picks. The 32-strike call has a 56.34% IV, 40.35% leverage ratio, and 0.1897 gamma—ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target $33.49). Payoff: $1.49 per contract. The 31-strike call (55.45% IV, 23.79% leverage) offers a $2.49 payoff at $33.49. Both contracts have high turnover (612,800 and 42,175) and theta decay of -0.2089, favoring short-term moves. Aggressive bulls should target $32.50 (52-week high) as a key breakout level.

Backtest Bilibili Stock Performance
The backtest of BILI's performance following a 9% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows poor results. The strategy's CAGR is -10.26%, with a total return of -34.54% and an excess return of -80.95%. The strategy has a high maximum drawdown of 0.00% and a sharp ratio of -0.12, indicating significant risk and substantial losses.

Bilibili’s Bull Run Gathers Steam—Act Now Before Gamma-Driven Volatility Peaks
Bilibili’s 9.34% surge is fueled by a perfect storm of call option buying, technical momentum, and sector-specific optimism. The 32-strike call’s 40.35% leverage ratio and 0.1897 gamma make it a prime candidate for a 5% upside scenario. While RSI overbought conditions and a 52-week high near $32.50 pose risks, the stock’s 79% nine-month gain and sector leader Netflix’s 0.04% flatline suggest BILI’s rally is self-sustaining. Watch for a break above $32.50 to confirm the trend—failure to hold $31.50 could trigger a gamma-driven selloff. Act now: Buy BILI20260116C32 for a high-leverage, high-gamma play on the 52-week high breakout.