The Next Big Pharma M&A Target: AstraZeneca or Eli Lilly?

In the high-stakes arena of pharmaceutical innovation, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) remain a cornerstone of growth. As of October 2025, two industry titans-Eli Lilly and AstraZeneca-stand at the forefront of biotech advancements, each leveraging distinct strategies to secure their positions in a rapidly evolving market. This analysis evaluates their strategic positioning in biotech innovation and blockbuster drug pipelines to determine which company is more likely to become the next major M&A target.

Eli Lilly: The GLP-1 Powerhouse and Diversified Innovator

Eli Lilly's dominance in the GLP-1 receptor agonist space has been nothing short of transformative. Its flagship drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound generated $6.15 billion in Q1 2025 alone, accounting for 48% of the company's total revenues, according to a Finviz analysis. These obesity and diabetes treatments have not only solidified Lilly's market leadership but also positioned it to capitalize on the global obesity epidemic.

Beyond GLP-1s, Lilly has diversified its pipeline with new launches like Omvoh (for rare blood disorders) and Jaypirca (for gout), while expanding indications for existing therapies. The Labiotech reporting also highlights the company's mid-to-late-stage projects in obesity, diabetes, and cancer that are poised to deliver further growth, with key data readouts expected in 2025.

Lilly's aggressive M&A strategy has also been a catalyst for innovation. In early 2025, it acquired Scorpion Therapeutics for up to $2.5 billion to secure a PI3Kα inhibitor program targeting breast and solid tumors, according to a Labiotech report. This move directly challenges competitors like Novartis and Roche in the oncology space. Additionally, partnerships with Alchemab Therapeutics (for ALS antibodies) and OliX Pharmaceuticals (for MASH treatments) underscore Lilly's commitment to expanding its metabolic and radiopharmaceutical capabilities, as noted in that same Labiotech coverage.

However, challenges persist. Trulicity, a prior GLP-1 leader, faces declining U.S. sales due to competition, a trend also discussed in the Finviz analysis. Yet, Lilly's robust international expansion and a pipeline brimming with first-in-class candidates suggest its growth trajectory remains intact.

AstraZeneca: Oncology Focus and AI-Driven Breakthroughs

AstraZeneca's strategic focus on oncology and rare diseases has positioned it as a leader in experimental therapies. With 41% of its 2025 revenues derived from oncology, the company has 196 pipeline projects and 19 new molecular entities in late-stage development, per AstraZeneca's pipeline. Its ambitious goal of launching 20 new medicines by 2030 and achieving $80 billion in total revenues reflects a long-term vision anchored in innovation, a point also discussed in the Finviz analysis.

AstraZeneca's 2025 acquisition of EsoBiotec for $1 billion exemplifies its commitment to cutting-edge oncology. EsoBiotec's in vivo adoptive cell therapy platform eliminates complex ex vivo manufacturing, reducing costs and improving scalability, as shown in a Tracxn list. This aligns with AstraZeneca's broader focus on immunotherapy and cancer treatments.

The company has also embraced AI to accelerate drug discovery. A $200 million partnership with Tempus and Pathos AI aims to develop a deep learning model for oncology, leveraging Tempus's extensive data library, according to a Pharmaceutical Technology report. Additionally, a $110 million upfront payment to CSPC Pharmaceutical for AI-driven oral drug development highlights AstraZeneca's push into chronic disease markets in China, as reported by a FierceBiotech report.

Despite these strengths, AstraZeneca faces headwinds from generic competition in certain markets, an issue also noted in the Finviz piece. However, its pipeline depth and strategic use of AI and partnerships suggest it is well-equipped to navigate these challenges.

Comparative Analysis: Innovation vs. Invention

While both companies excel in pipeline development, their approaches differ. Eli Lilly prioritizes blockbuster commercialization, with GLP-1s driving immediate revenue and a diversified portfolio mitigating risks. Its M&A activity is transactional and targeted, focusing on high-impact assets like Scorpion Therapeutics as covered by Labiotech.

AstraZeneca, conversely, emphasizes long-term invention, particularly in oncology and rare diseases. Its partnerships with AI and biotech firms reflect a bet on transformative therapies rather than incremental improvements, as noted in the Pharmaceutical Technology and FierceBiotech reporting. This strategy aligns with the industry's shift toward precision medicine but may take longer to yield returns.

Financially, Lilly's 2025 Q1 performance ($6.15 billion from GLP-1s) demonstrates short-term scalability, while AstraZeneca's $80 billion 2030 revenue target hinges on successful late-stage trials and regulatory approvals, per AstraZeneca's pipeline and the Finviz analysis.

The M&A Outlook: Which Is the Better Target?

For acquirers seeking immediate revenue growth and proven blockbuster assets, Eli Lilly is the more attractive target. Its GLP-1 dominance, diversified pipeline, and recent M&A activity offer a clear path to near-term value creation. However, Lilly's reliance on a single therapeutic class (GLP-1s) introduces concentration risk.

AstraZeneca, on the other hand, appeals to investors prioritizing long-term innovation and diversified therapeutic areas. Its oncology focus, AI partnerships, and global expansion into China make it a compelling candidate for strategic buyers seeking to future-proof their portfolios. Yet, its slower revenue realization and regulatory risks may deter impatient acquirers.

Conclusion

The choice between Eli Lilly and AstraZeneca as the next big pharma M&A target hinges on the acquirer's strategic priorities. Lilly's blockbuster-driven model offers immediate scalability, while AstraZeneca's innovation-centric approach promises long-term differentiation. In a market where both speed and sustainability matter, the winner may depend on which company's pipeline aligns more closely with the acquirer's vision for the future.