¿Están los grandes bancos alcanzando un punto máximo en su valoración, después de una recuperación en los años 2025-2026?

The banking sector's post-2025 rally has sparked a critical question: Are big banks now reaching peak valuation, or do regulatory tailwinds and strategic shifts justify continued growth? Institutional investors, including the Alaska Department of Revenue, have already signaled caution by trimming stakes in major banks like Citigroup. Meanwhile, sector leadership is consolidating around Wells Fargo and JPMorgan, which are leveraging blockchain and digital assets to redefine their competitive edges. Regulatory developments, including Basel III revisions and the GENIUS Act, further complicate the valuation picture. This analysis evaluates whether the current moment favors rebalancing into growth-oriented banking plays or locking in gains from a post-recovery rally.

Institutional Profit-Taking and the Citigroup Case

The Alaska Department of Revenue's 6% reduction in its Citigroup stake during Q3 2025-leaving a remaining position of 197,581 shares valued at $20.05 million as of January 2026-reflects a broader trend of institutional profit-taking in the banking sector. This move followed Citigroup's strong 2025 performance, driven by restructuring and improved profitability. Such actions suggest that investors are hedging against potential overvaluation, particularly after a year of robust returns. As one analyst noted, "The Alaska Department's decision underscores a cautious approach to rebalancing portfolios amid evolving market dynamics."

This profit-taking is not isolated. Citigroup's rally, while impressive, has left some investors wary of a correction, especially as regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainties persist. The Alaska Department's stake reduction serves as a bellwether for institutional sentiment, signaling that the sector's recent gains may not be fully sustainable without further catalysts.

Sector Leadership: Wells Fargo and JPMorgan's Strategic Shifts

While Citigroup faces profit-taking, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan have emerged as sector leaders, capitalizing on blockchain adoption and digital asset integration. JPMorgan, under Jamie Dimon's leadership, has fully embraced blockchain, with its Onyx/Kinexys platform processing over $1.5 trillion in cumulative transactions by 2024 and its JPM Coin facilitating $2 billion in daily settlements. Similarly, Wells Fargo has developed internal digital cash for settlement operations, aligning with industry trends driven by regulatory clarity and client demand.

These strategic moves are paying off. JPMorgan reported Q3 2025 net income of $14.4 billion-a 12% year-over-year increase-and maintained a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 14.8%, supporting aggressive capital returns. Its Asset & Wealth Management division saw a 23% surge in net income to $1.7 billion, while the J.P. Morgan Payments segment generated $4.9 billion in revenue. Wells Fargo, meanwhile, trades at a P/E ratio of 14.23, slightly above its fair value estimate of 16.1x, and has a price-to-sales ratio of 2.50, indicating a premium on its revenue streams.

However, both banks face challenges. Wells Fargo's high debt-to-equity ratio (2.25) and negative enterprise value-to-operating cash flow ratio (-38.03) highlight liquidity risks. JPMorgan's foray into crypto-collateralized lending, while innovative, remains cautious, with analysts noting the market is "still in its early stages".

Regulatory Tailwinds: Basel III and the GENIUS Act

The regulatory landscape for 2025–2026 is reshaping bank valuations. Basel III revisions, expected to introduce a more "capital neutral" framework by 2028, may ease capital requirements for banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo. U.S. regulators are also considering eliminating dual-stack capital calculations and recalibrating operational risk charges, potentially reducing compliance burdens.

The GENIUS Act, enacted in July 2025, has further transformed the sector by regulating stablecoin issuance. The Act mandates 100% reserve backing for stablecoins and prohibits interest payments, aiming to stabilize the market while limiting yield-seeking incentives. For JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, this creates opportunities in stablecoin infrastructure but also imposes constraints. JPMorgan, for instance, is exploring crypto-backed loans and stablecoin collateral, but analysts caution that the market's $310 billion size (as of late 2025) is far from the $3 trillion projections, suggesting a long-term growth trajectory.

Valuation Metrics and Profit-Taking Opportunities

Despite strategic and regulatory tailwinds, valuation metrics for JPMorgan and Wells Fargo remain mixed. JPMorgan's market cap, bolstered by its $4.6 trillion in assets and $360 billion in stockholders' equity, reflects strong capital returns and digital innovation. However, its exposure to crypto markets remains limited, with analysts noting that "the full potential of digital assets will take years to materialize".

Wells Fargo's valuation appears overvalued relative to its peers, with a current P/E of 14.23 versus a projected fair value of 15x. Its recent issuance of long-dated callable senior unsecured notes-maturities extending to 2041-signals a focus on long-term lending and capital management. Yet, its high leverage and liquidity risks could deter investors seeking stable returns.

Conclusion: Rebalance or Lock In Gains?

The banking sector's 2025–2026 rally has been driven by restructuring, digital innovation, and regulatory clarity. However, institutional profit-taking, as seen in Alaska's Citigroup stake reduction, and the mixed valuation metrics for sector leaders suggest caution. While JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are well-positioned to capitalize on blockchain and stablecoin opportunities, the regulatory environment remains fluid, with Basel III revisions and the GENIUS Act introducing both opportunities and constraints.

For investors, the decision to rebalance or lock in gains hinges on risk tolerance. Those prioritizing stability may prefer to secure profits from the post-recovery rally, particularly as overvaluation risks loom. Conversely, growth-oriented investors could target JPMorgan and Wells Fargo for their digital asset initiatives, provided they are prepared for regulatory and market volatility. As one industry observer noted, "The next chapter for big banks will be defined by how well they navigate the intersection of innovation and regulation".