BHP Rises 0.51% Amid Bullish Technical Signals And 49.30 Support Defense

BHP Group (BHP) rose 0.51% in the latest session, closing at 49.61 after trading between 49.30 and 50.22. This moderate gain occurs amidst a technical landscape showing both bullish and cautionary signals across multiple indicators, as detailed in the following analysis.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a potential short-term reversal pattern. The 2025-07-09 session formed a hammer-like candle with a long lower wick (low: 49.30) and close near the upper range (49.61), following a 2.24% decline on 2025-07-07. This suggests buyers are defending the 49.30 support level. Resistance is evident near 50.22–50.73, where repeated rejections occurred in the past three sessions. A confirmed break above 50.73 would signal bullish continuation, while failure to hold 49.30 may trigger a test of the 48.50–48.70 support zone established in late June.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day and 100-day moving averages show a bullish alignment, with the 50-day (approximately 48.60) maintaining its position above the 100-day (approximately 47.80). This configuration supports an intermediate uptrend initiated after the April 2025 low of 40.66. The current price trades above both averages, reinforcing positive momentum. However, the absence of a 200-day MA due to limited data duration warrants caution; the broader trend remains constrained by the 51.90–52.00 resistance area.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum, with the signal line hovering near zero. While this may foreshadow a potential bullish crossover, it currently reflects neutral sentiment. Concurrently, the KDJ indicator presents a bullish divergence: price established a higher low on 2025-07-09 relative to 2025-07-08, while the K-line (now near 45) and D-line (near 40) are rising from oversold territory. This suggests improving short-term momentum. Confluence exists at the 49.30 support level, where both KDJ's bullish divergence and candlestick signals align.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction is evident as the bands narrow (20-day band width now near 8%), indicating potential price expansion ahead. The 2025-07-09 close near the middle band (20-day SMA ≈ 49.50) reflects indecision. A decisive close above 50.00 would challenge the upper band (currently 52.00), while a break below the lower band (now 47.00) would signal renewed bearish pressure. The bands’ symmetrical shape around the price suggests balanced supply/demand equilibrium near current levels.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends validate recent price movements. The 4.23% surge on 2025-07-02 occurred with significantly high volume (6.94M shares), confirming bullish conviction. Conversely, the 0.51% gain on 2025-07-09 saw reduced volume (3.73M shares), questioning the rebound’s sustainability. Supportive volume is needed to overcome the 50.22–50.73 resistance. Divergence emerges as price recovery since June 2025 lacks corresponding volume expansion compared to the April rally, indicating tepid buyer enthusiasm.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (currently 55) holds in neutral territory after rebounding from near-oversold levels (30.5 on 2025-06-20). This recovery aligns with price stabilization but remains below the overbought threshold of 70. A sustained move above 60 could signal strengthening momentum, though the RSI’s current position reflects balanced conditions. While no immediate divergence exists, traders should note that the RSI failed to reach overbought territory during the early July rally, implying inherent weakness in upward moves.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the primary downtrend from the October 2024 high (63.21) to April 2025 low (40.66) shows critical inflection points. The 61.8% retracement (49.27) has provided consistent support throughout June–July 2025, including the recent 2025-07-08 low (49.23). This level now converges with the short-term support identified in candlestick analysis. Sustained trading above 49.27 may initiate a move toward the 78.6% level (45.49), while clearing the 50.00 psychological barrier could open a path to 51.94 (50% retracement) based on the secondary swing from the June peak.