BHP Group Extends Gains To 2.61% As Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

BHP Group has registered a three-day consecutive gain, rising 0.39% to close at $53.50 in the latest session, bringing its total gain over this period to 2.61%. Below is a technical analysis of its price action using multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a reversal pattern emerging near the $52.70 support level. The 2025-09-22 session formed a bullish engulfing candle with a 1.94% gain on elevated volume, breaking through the $53.00 resistance. This level has now flipped to support, evidenced by the last three sessions consolidating above it with higher lows. Resistance is evident at $54.00 – the price rejected this zone multiple times in early September, forming long wicks. The most recent candles indicate consolidation with reduced upper wicks, suggesting diminishing selling pressure near current levels.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($52.10) crossed above the 100-day ($51.80) and 200-day ($51.20) averages in late August, establishing a bullish long-term trend. Current price trades above all three key moving averages, confirming the uptrend. However, the convergence between the 50-day and 100-day averages indicates potential consolidation. The 200-day MA serves as robust support, aligning with the August swing low of $49.30. Sustained trading above the 50-day MA reinforces intermediate bullishness, though a break below $52.90 could trigger a retest of the 100-day MA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum, with the signal line flattening near the zero line after a September pullback. This suggests weakening downward pressure. Meanwhile, the KDJ indicator exited oversold territory on 2025-09-22, with the K-line crossing above the D-line – a bullish crossover. Both oscillators now trend upward but remain below overbought thresholds, indicating room for further upside. A potential positive divergence is notable: while prices made higher lows in August–September, KDJ registered higher lows, signaling strengthening momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction is evident as Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly during September’s $51.80–$54.00 consolidation. The recent price breakout above the 20-period moving average ($53.20) and toward the upper band ($54.10) signals renewed bullish momentum. Band expansion began on 2025-09-22, coinciding with the bullish engulfing candle, suggesting continuation potential. The current position near the upper band warrants monitoring for overextension, though the breakout volume lends credibility.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 48% during the 2025-09-22 breakout, validating the bullish reversal. Subsequent sessions showed declining volume during consolidation, indicating no significant distribution. Volume on up days has consistently exceeded down days since late August, confirming accumulation. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) sits at $52.80, below the current price, reinforcing the bullish structure. Sustained trade above this VWAP supports continuation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded from near-oversold territory (35) on 2025-09-22 to its current reading of 58, reflecting improving momentum without entering overbought conditions. While not yet signaling overbought, the RSI’s failure to breach 60 during September’s recovery warrants caution. Its steady ascent alongside price avoids bearish divergence, but a decisive break above 60 would strengthen the bullish case. Current levels suggest balanced buying pressure.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the swing low of $49.30 (2025-08-21) and high of $55.89 (2025-09-03), key retracement levels emerge. The 38.2% retracement at $53.30 provided support during mid-September pullbacks, while the 23.6% level ($54.90) aligns with September resistance. Current price action holds above the 38.2% level – a bullish sign. A close above $54.90 (23.6%) could catalyze a run toward the 0% extension at $55.89. The 50% retracement at $52.60 offers critical support if the 38.2% level fails.
Confluence and Divergence
Strong confluence exists at $53.30 (38.2% Fibonacci level + 100-day MA + VWAP), validated by repeated bounces. The breach of this zone on volume signals bullish strength. Divergence is minimal, though RSI momentum trails price slightly – a factor warranting monitoring. MACD and KDJ agreement on waning bearish pressure supports further upside. Resistance confluence at $54.80–$55.00 (previous swing high + 23.6% Fibonacci) presents the next key test. Downside risks would materialize only below the $52.60 confluence zone (50% Fibonacci + 50-day MA).