Previsión de ganancias de Betsy Graseck: El catalizador de fusiones y adquisiciones y el sistema de valoración

The immediate event is here. The bank earnings season opens next week, with JPMorgan Chase kicking off on Jan. 13, followed by Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo on the 14th, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on the 15th. The core driver for this week's results is a clear surge in investment banking revenue, fueled by a boom in mergers and acquisitions. As banking analyst Stephen Biggar noted, the fourth quarter shaped up to be a "perfect recipe" for investment banking revenues, with a revival in dealmaking at the center.

The numbers back it up. Global investment banking revenue rose 15% from a year earlier to almost $103 billion last year, the second-highest on record. More specifically, mergers and acquisitions volume surged to $5.1 trillion in 2025, up 42% from 2024. This acceleration is the direct catalyst that analysts expect to lift bank profits this quarter. Morgan Stanley's global head of banks research, Betsy Graseck, puts it simply: while 2026 bank earnings are currently in line with expectations, estimates should rise as M&A and IPO activity accelerates. This sets up a classic event-driven opportunity-earnings season is the catalyst that could force a re-rating of bank valuations if dealmaking continues to heat up.

The Drivers: M&A Surge vs. Loan Growth Fundamentals

The setup for this earnings season is a classic tug-of-war between two forces. On one side is the volatile, high-impact surge in investment banking fees, driven by a massive spike in M&A activity. On the other is the more predictable, foundational strength from core banking operations. The event-driven opportunity hinges on which force dominates the headline numbers.

The M&A surge is undeniable. Mergers and acquisitions volume surged to $5.1 trillion in 2025, up 42% from 2024. This boom is the direct fuel for the expected earnings pop, with banks like Goldman Sachs topping the M&A rankings. Yet, this is a cyclical windfall. As noted, Goldman is unlikely to sustain more volatile gains from equity investments in its asset management unit from the prior year. The M&A fee boost is a powerful catalyst for this quarter, but it may not be repeatable at the same pace, creating a potential overhang if deal flow cools.

Against this, the stable earnings foundation is built on loan growth and net interest margins. Analysts expect results to benefit from broad loan growth and expansion in net interest margin. This is the more durable driver. It stems from a combination of a healthy economy and anticipated policy tailwinds, including lighter regulations and potentially lower interest rates. While a slowdown in job growth could eventually pressure consumer loans, the current view is that these fundamentals will provide a solid floor for profits this year.

The bottom line for investors is the mix. The M&A surge offers a near-term catalyst to lift earnings above expectations, potentially triggering a re-rating. But the sustainable earnings power comes from the steady expansion of loan portfolios and the margin on those loans. The event-driven trade is to buy the M&A pop, but the long-term bet is on the loan growth story holding steady.

The Tailwinds and Risks: Political and Policy Shifts

The event-driven setup for bank earnings is being shaped by a potent mix of political tailwinds and policy risks. On one side, a major regulatory shift is on the horizon. Investors are watching for regulatory shifts under the Trump administration, which could ease banking rules for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis. This potential easing of capital and operational requirements represents a direct, positive catalyst that could boost bank profitability and lending appetite, providing a tangible boost to the sector's forward view.

On the flip side, significant headwinds threaten to offset these gains. New tariff policies and persistent inflation concerns are creating uncertainty that weighs on corporate decision-making and consumer spending. As noted, these factors impact financial growth and credit quality, potentially pressuring loan demand and increasing the risk of defaults. The risk is compounded by other pressures, including rising healthcare costs and the potential for "run it hot" fiscal stimulus, which could reignite inflation and force the Federal Reserve into a more restrictive stance.

Yet, a resilient underlying economy provides a crucial counterbalance. Strong corporate earnings and a healthy job market are supporting wealth management revenue, a key fee-based income stream for banks. As one analysis points out, a resilient economy and strong corporate earnings are likely to drive continued equity gains in 2026. This supports the asset management and trading businesses that are central to investment banking profits. The bottom line is a sector caught between these forces: a powerful regulatory tailwind could amplify earnings, but it must navigate a complex landscape of trade and inflation risks. For the earnings season, the net effect will hinge on which force proves stronger in the numbers.

The Valuation Setup and What to Watch

The event-driven trade hinges on a clear beat. For Morgan Stanley, the stock's reaction to its earnings report on January 15 will pivot on whether it clears the consensus hurdles. The market expects quarterly earnings of $2.36 per share, a 6.3% year-over-year gain, and revenues of $17.35 billion, up 6.9%. The consensus estimate for earnings has actually been revised upward by 4.05% over the past month, signaling some analyst optimism ahead of the report. A miss here could trigger a swift re-rating lower, while a beat would validate the M&A-driven optimism fueling the sector.

Positioning is strong, but not without a ceiling. The stock's analyst following is robust, with its global head of banks research, Betsy Graseck, carrying an average stock price target met ratio of 71.34%. Her targets also show a potential upside of 23.06% achieved within 350 days. This track record suggests the Street has a high degree of confidence in her calls, but it also means the stock may already be pricing in a significant portion of that upside. The immediate catalyst is the earnings beat, not a new target.

The key metrics to watch are twofold. First, management commentary on the sustainability of the M&A-driven revenue surge is critical. The investment banking boom is a powerful near-term tailwind, but investors need to hear how much of this is a cyclical windfall versus a durable shift in deal flow. Second, the impact of looming regulatory changes must be addressed. As noted, regulatory shifts under the Trump administration could ease banking rules. Management's take on how these potential changes could affect capital, operations, and profitability will be a major driver of the stock's forward view. The bottom line is that Morgan Stanley must not only beat the number but also provide clarity on the durability of its earnings engine and the tangible benefits of the regulatory tailwind.