Bessent: 'Noninflationary Growth' Ahead Despite Housing, Job Market Struggles

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has dismissed fears of a 2026 U.S. recession, asserting that the economy is poised for "very strong, noninflationary growth" despite challenges in sectors like housing and interest-rate-sensitive industries. His remarks come amid a broader economic landscape marked by a recent $11 billion funding round for prediction market platform Kalshi, which has drawn comparisons to rival Polymarket in the rapidly expanding fintech sector. According to reports, Kalshi's recent $1 billion funding round, led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, underscores investor confidence in the prediction market's potential. The platform now competes with Polymarket, which is seeking a $12–$15 billion valuation as it re-enters the U.S. market after a regulatory hiatus. Both platforms have secured high-profile integrations with financial services like Google Finance and Robinhood, signaling a broader acceptance of speculative trading tools.

Bessent's optimism hinges on the implementation of the GOP's "One Big, Beautiful Bill Act," which aims to extend Trump-era tax cuts and introduce new incentives for seniors and state residents. The legislation, he argued, will catalyze growth by reducing regulatory burdens and enhancing consumer spending power. We have set the table for a very strong, noninflationary growth economy, Bessent told NBC News. However, he acknowledged that sectors such as housing and energy remain vulnerable to high interest rates and shifting demand patterns.

The economic outlook is further complicated by the aftermath of a 43-day government shutdown in late 2025, which disrupted liquidity and triggered short-term spikes in overnight lending rates. While Bessent emphasized that the fiscal "catch-up" effect will stabilize markets in November, the shutdown's lingering impacts are evident in the labor market. U.S. job growth in 2025 has been the weakest in 15 years outside of the pandemic, with only health care and hospitality sectors contributing to net gains. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a combined 690,000 jobs added in these sectors this year, while overall employment has declined by 6,000.

Despite these developments, economic risks persist. According to analysis, a congressional stalemate over Affordable Care Act subsidies has pushed health-care costs higher, complicating Bessent's claims of affordability improvements. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts-despite recent policy adjustments-has left businesses in sectors like manufacturing and construction grappling with elevated borrowing costs.