La divergencia en la valuación de Berkshire Hathaway: Un dilema para los inversores a largo plazo

The investment world has long revered Berkshire Hathaway as a paragon of value investing, yet its current valuation presents a paradox. While the company's fundamentals-operating earnings, book value growth, and strategic capital allocation-remain robust, technical analyses and market sentiment suggest a divergence that challenges even the most seasoned investors. This article examines whether Berkshire's intrinsic value justifies its mixed technical outlook, drawing on historical performance, intrinsic value estimates, and evolving market dynamics.

Current Fundamentals: A Tale of Resilience and Concentration

Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 financial results underscore its enduring operational strength. Operating earnings surged by 27% year-over-year to $47.4 billion, driven by a 51% increase in insurance underwriting profits and elevated investment income. Despite a 4.2% decline in pre-tax earnings from its manufacturing, service, and retailing segments, the conglomerate's cash reserves hit a record $318 billion, with nearly half uninvested. This liquidity buffer, coupled with a 14.4% year-over-year rise in book value per share to $455,005, highlights its capacity to weather macroeconomic headwinds.

However, the investment portfolio reveals a concentration risk. As of Q4 2024, Berkshire's publicly traded holdings totaled $267 billion, with Apple alone accounting for 28% of the portfolio. The top ten holdings represented 90% of the total, and the financial sector dominated at 40%. While this strategy has historically delivered compounding returns, it raises questions about diversification in an era of sector-specific volatility.

Historical Performance: Compounding and the Buffett Legacy

Over the past decade, Berkshire's book value per share has grown from $132.04 in 2015 to $323.62 in 2025, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 12%. This trajectory aligns with Warren Buffett's philosophy of leveraging insurance float-a $164 billion asset in 2024-to fund high-conviction investments. Yet, the compounding magic faces scrutiny as intrinsic value estimates diverge.

Intrinsic value calculations for 2025 range widely. A free cash flow model estimates $364.69 per Class B share, while discounted cash flow (DCF) approaches suggest $514.08.

. More ambitious valuations, such as $802,000 per Class A share, factor in the conglomerate's operating businesses and investment portfolio. These disparities reflect the complexity of valuing a company with such a diverse asset base.

Market Sentiment: Cash Accumulation and Strategic Shifts

Q3 2025 portfolio adjustments signal a defensive stance. Berkshire's cash reserves expanded to $381 billion, with the company continuing its 12-quarter streak of net stock sales. This behavior, consistent with Buffett's aversion to overvalued markets, contrasts with its recent foray into Alphabet-a $4.3 billion stake-marking a departure from its historical underweight in technology. Such moves underscore the board's adaptability but also highlight the risks of market timing.

Technical analyses further complicate the picture. While some models suggest a 20% overvaluation based on a $596,882 intrinsic value per Class A share, others argue for a 34.6% undervaluation using the Excess Returns model. This divergence reflects divergent assumptions about growth rates and discount factors, leaving investors to navigate a fog of uncertainty.

Implications for Long-Term Investors

For long-term investors, Berkshire's valuation divergence presents both opportunity and caution. The company's operational resilience-bolstered by its insurance float and diversified business lines-provides a floor for value. However, the premium at which shares trade relative to intrinsic estimates (a price-to-book ratio of 1.72x) suggests market optimism about future returns that may not be fully justified by current fundamentals.

Historically, Buffett has emphasized purchasing shares at prices that align with intrinsic value. His 2014 warning about buying at "double book value" remains relevant, particularly as succession concerns loom with Greg Abel's impending leadership transition. Investors must weigh the company's compounding potential against the risks of overvaluation and sector concentration.

Conclusion: Navigating the Divergence

Berkshire Hathaway's valuation divergence is a microcosm of broader market dynamics. While its fundamentals remain strong, the disconnect between intrinsic value estimates and technical indicators demands a nuanced approach. Long-term investors should prioritize patience, recognizing that Buffett's "wait for the ball to come to you" philosophy may yet yield rewards. However, the current premium pricing necessitates a disciplined assessment of risk and return, particularly in a world where macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties persist.

As the company navigates this crossroads, its ability to adapt-whether through strategic investments in emerging sectors or disciplined capital allocation-will ultimately determine whether the valuation gap closes in favor of its shareholders.