¿Seguimos comprando Berkshire Hathaway sin Warren Buffett? Evaluar riesgos de transición y valor a largo plazo

The question of whether Berkshire Hathaway remains an attractive investment in the post-Warren Buffett era hinges on two critical factors: the risks associated with its leadership transition and the enduring strength of its operational and financial durability. As Buffett prepares to step down as CEO by year-end 2025, the company's evolving governance structure and performance metrics offer a nuanced picture for investors.

Leadership Transition: A Calculated Handover

Berkshire's leadership changes, while significant, reflect a deliberate and methodical approach to succession planning. Greg Abel, the hand-picked successor, has already assumed expanded responsibilities overseeing non-insurance operations, including BNSF Railway, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and Pilot. His appointment as CEO in early 2026 signals confidence in his ability to manage the conglomerate's sprawling portfolio according to company announcements. Abel's track record in scaling energy and infrastructure assets, combined with Buffett's continued oversight until 2026, mitigates immediate concerns about operational continuity as reported by business insiders.

However, the departure of Todd Combs-once a key figure in managing Berkshire's investment portfolio-introduces uncertainty. Combs' exit to JPMorgan Chase has left a void in portfolio management, though Buffett has indicated that Abel will take primary responsibility, with Ted Weschler providing support according to recent updates. This arrangement leverages Weschler's investment acumen, a reassuring detail for shareholders wary of a post-Buffett decline in capital allocation discipline.

The transition also extends to the CFO role, with Marc Hamburg retiring in 2027 and Charles Chang, currently CFO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, set to succeed him in 2026 as confirmed by financial sources. Meanwhile, the appointment of Michael O'Sullivan as the company's first general counsel underscores a shift toward formalized governance, a departure from Buffett's decentralized "Berkshire way." While this structure may reduce agility, it also signals a commitment to institutionalizing best practices-a trade-off that could appeal to risk-averse investors as detailed in industry analysis.

Operational Durability: Earnings Growth and Strategic Resilience

Berkshire's operational performance in 2025 has reinforced its long-term durability. Third-quarter operating earnings surged to nearly $30.8 billion, driven by robust contributions from the insurance segment, BNSF Railroad, and the manufacturing, service, and retailing (MSR) division. The insurance segment, in particular, remains a cornerstone of profitability, with GEICO's combined ratio of 84.3% highlighting efficient underwriting according to financial data.

Financial metrics further bolster the case for Berkshire's resilience. As of late 2025, the stock trades at a P/E ratio of 15.7–16.1x, below its 10-year historical average of 20.42 and the sector peer average of 25.0x according to market analysis. Analysts estimate a fair P/E of 17x, suggesting a modest undervaluation. Discounted cash flow models add to this narrative, with a fair value estimate of $772.97 per share versus the current price of approximately $504 per valuation reports. These valuations imply that the market has priced in conservative expectations, leaving room for re-rating if earnings growth or capital allocation outperform forecasts.

Berkshire's book value growth also remains a compelling metric. Historical data shows an average annual growth rate of 12% over the past decade according to macroeconomic trends. For 2024, the book value per share was $487.57, reflecting steady equity expansion despite a 6.8% decline in annual EPS compared to 2023 as reported in earnings. The most recent quarterly report, however, showed a 17.2% year-over-year increase in EPS to $14.28, underscoring the company's ability to recover quickly from short-term headwinds per financial disclosures.

Balancing Risks and Rewards

The transition risks, while non-trivial, appear manageable given the depth of leadership and Buffett's extended handover period. Abel's operational expertise, Weschler's investment acumen, and the formalization of governance roles collectively reduce the likelihood of a post-Buffett slump. Meanwhile, Berkshire's diversified business model-spanning insurance, utilities, railroads, and consumer brands-provides a buffer against sector-specific downturns.

Critics may argue that the "Berkshire way" of decentralized management could be diluted by the new corporate structure, potentially slowing decision-making. Yet, the company's ability to generate consistent underwriting profits and deploy capital effectively-hallmarks of Buffett's era-suggests that its core strengths remain intact.

Conclusion: A Buy, But With Nuance

Berkshire Hathaway's valuation metrics and operational performance continue to justify its status as a long-term buy. While the leadership transition introduces some uncertainty, the depth of talent in the new executive team and the company's durable business model mitigate these risks. Investors should monitor how Abel and Weschler manage the investment portfolio and whether the formalized governance structure enhances or constrains operational flexibility. For now, the combination of undervaluation, earnings resilience, and strategic continuity makes Berkshire a compelling, albeit cautious, addition to a diversified portfolio.