Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B) Options Signal Deepening Bearish Sentiment: Put/Call Imbalance at 0.59, Whale Trades at $475–$495 Suggest Strategic Shorting Opportunities

• BRK.B trades at $501.48, up 1.32% intraday, but options data reveals a stark bearish bias with a put/call open interest ratio of 0.59.
• Block trades totaling $6.1M in puts at $475–$495 (expiring 2025-09-19) signal institutional bearishness, while call open interest peaks at $505 and $502.5.
• Technical indicators show a short-term bullish trend but conflicting RSI (43) and MACD histogram (-0.55) hint at near-term exhaustion.

Core Insight: Despite a 1.3% intraday rally, BRK.B faces a critical juncture. The options market is pricing in a 59% put/call imbalance, with heavy open interest at $475–$495 and block trades amplifying bearish conviction. This suggests a high probability of a pullback to test 30D support at $488.49, creating a strategic shorting window for traders.Decoding the Options Imbalance and Whale Moves

The options chain paints a clear bearish picture. For Friday expiration, put open interest spikes at $475 (OI: 1,338) and $480 (OI: 714), while call OI peaks at $505 (OI: 1,321) and $502.5 (OI: 1,095). The next Friday chain amplifies this bias, with $495 puts (OI: 3,161) dominating and $510 calls (OI: 833) trailing. This distribution indicates institutional positioning for a sharp decline, with key resistance at $505.27 (Bollinger Upper Band) acting as a critical level to watch.

Block trades further validate this narrative. Four separate $440–$480 lot trades in puts at $475–$495 (expiring 2025-09-19) injected $6.1M into the market. These trades, executed at prices 5–10% below current levels, suggest large players are hedging against a potential earnings-driven selloff or macroeconomic headwinds. The concentration at $475–$495 aligns with the 200D support range (488.49–489.08), creating a high-probability zone for short-term capitulation.

News Flow and Market Narrative

Berkshire’s recent news reinforces the bearish setup. The full exit from BYD and reduced HP stake signal a shift toward defensive, cash-generating assets. While increased stakes in Mitsui and Mitsubishi highlight Japan’s strategic importance, these moves lack the growth potential of tech or EV sectors. Meanwhile, the Fed’s potential rate cuts pose a direct threat to BRK.B’s insurance float and long-term bond portfolio, which comprise 40% of its investments. This creates a dual risk: declining asset values and reduced capital generation, both of which could pressure the stock below $495.87 (middle Bollinger Band).

Actionable Trading OpportunitiesOptions Strategy:

• Short the $495 Put (Next Friday): With OI at 3,161, this strike offers a 1.1% premium (approx. $5.50) and aligns with the 200D support range. Target a $486.47 exit (lower Bollinger Band) if the stock breaks below $495.87.
• Short the $475 Put (This Friday): A 5% OTM strike with 1,338 OI provides a 2.3% premium ($11.50). Use a tight stop at $480 to capture a potential $475–$480 range-bound move.

Stock Position:

• Short Entry at $495.87: The middle Bollinger Band acts as a dynamic resistance. Target $486.47 (lower band) with a stop at $502.10 (intraday high).
• Long Hedge at $488.49: If the stock holds above 30D support, consider a small long position with a tight stop at $486.47 to capitalize on a rebound.

Volatility on the Horizon

The coming weeks will test BRK.B’s resilience. A break below $488.49 would validate the bearish options thesis, while a close above $505.27 could trigger a short-covering rally. Traders should monitor the Fed’s policy signals and Berkshire’s quarterly earnings (due in mid-October) for directional clues. Given the current setup, a disciplined short bias with tight stops and a focus on $475–$495 strikes offers the most compelling risk/reward profile.