El próximo paso con IAs de Berkshire Hathaway: identificar la perla oculta en el sector de las IA

Warren Buffett's investment philosophy has long emphasized the importance of durable competitive moats, consistent cash flow generation, and long-term value creation. As artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes global industries, Berkshire Hathaway's strategic approach to the sector reflects a blend of caution and calculated ambition. While the conglomerate has already positioned itself in AI through its stakes in Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon-companies that collectively account for 39.1% of its $291 billion portfolio as of July 2025-the question remains: What emerging AI company or sector could serve as the next "hidden gem" for Berkshire, aligning with Buffett's principles while capitalizing on the transformative potential of AI?

Berkshire's Current AI Strategy: A Barbell Approach

Berkshire's AI strategy in 2025 is characterized by a "barbell" model. On one end, it leverages concentrated positions in established technology leaders, such as Apple and Amazon, which are integrating AI into their core operations. Apple's upcoming generative AI-powered Siri and Amazon's AWS cloud division-experiencing triple-digit growth in AI services-exemplify this focus. On the other end, Berkshire is investing in foundational infrastructure, such as energy grid upgrades to support AI data centers. This dual approach underscores Buffett's preference for businesses with entrenched market positions and scalable infrastructure, even as he avoids speculative bets on unproven AI startups.

Emerging AI Companies: A Closer Look

While Berkshire's current portfolio is robust, the search for a hidden gem requires identifying companies with durable moats, strong cash flow, and long-term growth potential. Four emerging players-Calix, Qualys, Innodata, and Five9-stand out for their alignment with Buffett's criteria.

1. Qualys: Cybersecurity's Recurring Revenue Model
   Qualys (QLYS) has demonstrated resilience in Q3 2025, with revenue growing 10% year-over-year to $169.9 million and operating cash flow surging 48% to $90.4 million. Its subscription-based cybersecurity platform, TotalAppSec and TotalAI, benefits from high switching costs and recurring revenue-a hallmark of Buffett's preferred business models. With a 53% free cash flow margin, Qualys exemplifies cash flow sustainability, a critical factor for Berkshire's long-term value creation.

2. Innodata: The Data Engine Behind AI
   Innodata (INOD) plays a pivotal role in the AI ecosystem by supplying high-quality training data to hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google. Its GenAI Test and Evaluation Platform, built on NVIDIA's NIM microservices, addresses a critical bottleneck in AI development: data validation. With expected revenue and earnings growth of 24.1% and 35.6% in 2025, Innodata's alignment with the "Magnificent 7" hyperscalers positions it as a beneficiary of the AI infrastructure boom. However, its Zacks Rank #3 status and smaller market cap introduce volatility, a potential red flag for Buffett's conservative approach.

3. Five9: AI-Driven Customer Experience
   Five9 (FIVN) has transformed contact centers through its Intelligent CX Platform, achieving a 212% ROI via automation and workflow optimization. Strategic partnerships with Salesforce and Microsoft enhance its competitive moat, while its 9.5% revenue growth in 2025 signals scalability. Yet, the complexity of proving ROI in AI-driven customer transformations may test its long-term appeal to Berkshire's risk-averse ethos.

4. Calix: AI in Broadband Infrastructure
   Calix (CALX) integrates AI into cloud platforms for broadband service providers, serving clients like Lumen and Verizon. With 12.4% revenue growth and 35.3% earnings growth projected, Calix's focus on operational efficiency aligns with Buffett's emphasis on practical, value-adding applications. However, its Zacks Rank #1 status and niche market may limit its scalability compared to broader infrastructure plays.

Strategic Alignment with Buffett's Principles

Buffett's framework prioritizes companies with economic moats, predictable cash flows, and long-term stability. Among the four, Qualys emerges as the most compelling candidate. Its cybersecurity sector is a defensive play with recurring revenue, high switching costs, and a clear path to monetization-attributes Buffett has historically favored. Additionally, Qualys's 53% free cash flow margin and raised 2025 revenue guidance reflect the financial discipline Berkshire values.

Innodata and Five9, while innovative, face challenges in scalability and volatility. Calix, though stable, operates in a niche market. For Berkshire, the ideal next AI play would balance innovation with Buffett's aversion to speculative risk-a balance Qualys achieves more effectively.

Conclusion: A Hidden Gem in Plain Sight

Berkshire Hathaway's next AI play need not be a disruptive startup but a company with a durable moat, strong cash flow, and a clear role in the AI ecosystem. Qualys, with its cybersecurity expertise and subscription model, fits this profile. By investing in Qualys, Berkshire could extend its infrastructure-focused AI strategy while adhering to Buffett's principles of long-term value creation. As AI continues to redefine industries, the conglomerate's ability to identify and capitalize on such hidden gems will be critical to sustaining its legacy of prudent, value-driven investing.