BELUSDT Market Overview for 2025-10-04

• BELUSDT opened at 0.2477 and traded between 0.2433 and 0.2511, closing at 0.2465.
• Price tested key support at 0.2450, with bearish momentum evident in RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility increased late into the night, with notable volume surges at key inflection points.
• Bollinger Bands expanded overnight, reflecting growing uncertainty and potential for breakouts.
• Notable bearish patterns like bearish engulfing and distribution tops emerged near the 0.2500 resistance level.

Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) opened at 0.2477 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and traded in a 24-hour range of 0.2433–0.2511, closing at 0.2465 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The total volume over the 24-hour period was 1,010,914.1 units, with a notional turnover of $249,492.00. Price action was volatile, particularly after 18:00 ET, where a sharp pullback was seen from intraday highs.

Price appears to be consolidating below the key 0.2500 psychological level after a failed attempt to retest the 0.2500–0.2502 cluster. The 15-minute chart shows bearish engulfing and long lower shadows, particularly around 21:15 ET and 02:30 ET, suggesting increasing bear pressure. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both crossed below the 0.2480 level, reinforcing a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is now at 0.2468, nearly aligning with the 24-hour close.

Momentum has clearly shifted to the downside, with RSI falling below 50 and approaching the oversold threshold around 0.2450. A bearish divergence in the MACD is also evident, with the histogram narrowing even as price continues to fall. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Band width, has increased overnight, with price closing near the lower band, suggesting possible exhaustion or a test of 0.2440.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the key 15-minute swing (0.2477 to 0.2511) indicate a potential support at 0.2494 (38.2%) and 0.2486 (61.8%). Price has already failed at 0.2494, which may signal further bearish pressure.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours could see BELUSDT testing the 0.2440–0.2450 range. A break below 0.2440 could open the door to deeper support at 0.2430, though volume and reversal patterns may offer a short-term bounce. Traders should remain cautious of continued bear pressure, especially if RSI fails to cross above 50 and MACD continues to trend downward.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy involves a short signal triggered on a bearish engulfing candle forming near the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed above the recent swing high. A take-profit target would align with the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the nearest support level. If combined with a RSI divergence and a MACD bearish crossover, this strategy may improve risk-adjusted returns. Historical testing would be required to validate its effectiveness across multiple market cycles.