Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-11-08

Summary
• Price declined 3.9% to 0.1913 after reaching a high of 0.2001.
• Volatility expanded, with wide swings between 0.1881 and 0.2004.
• Late morning rally failed to hold, with bearish divergence in volume.

Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) opened at 0.1895 on 2025-11-07 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1913 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET, with an intraday high of 0.2001 and a low of 0.1881. Total volume traded was 11,589,298.65, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 2,230.62 USD. The pair displayed a volatile 24-hour range amid bearish pressure in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The price chart shows a bearish continuation pattern, with a rejection at the 0.2001 level and a breakdown from the 0.1961–0.2001 consolidation range. A key support level emerged around 0.1913, marked by a confluence of a prior high and a failed bullish attempt. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible at 0.2001, signaling potential continuation of downward momentum. A doji formed at 0.1970, indicating indecision and a potential reversal point that did not hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is bearish, sitting below the 50-period line, with price frequently closing below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is approaching the 100-period line from below, suggesting a possible bearish crossover. The 200-period MA provides a major bearish bias, as price remains well below this long-term average.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed below the signal line in the afternoon, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped to oversold territory in the early morning hours but failed to generate a strong bounce. This divergence suggests weakening bearish conviction. MACD remains in negative territory with declining histogram bars, while RSI remains below 40, suggesting further downside could be in play.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, reflecting heightened volatility. Price traded near the lower band for much of the night and morning, with a failed attempt to break above the middle band during a brief midday rebound. The current price of 0.1913 sits near the lower band again, indicating a potential test of the 0.1881 support level is possible.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning rally, peaking at 219,273.7 on the 18:00–18:15 ET candle, followed by a decline. The divergence between price and volume suggests weakening bullish conviction. Total turnover reached 2,230.62 USD, with the largest contribution from the 18:00–18:45 ET window. Notional turnover was highest during the 0.2001–0.2004 price action, which failed to hold.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 0.1937–0.2001 swing shows price testing the 61.8% retraction at 0.1963 and failing. On the daily chart, the 0.1881–0.2001 swing suggests key support levels at 0.1943 (38.2%) and 0.1913 (61.8%). A breakdown below 0.1913 could target 0.1881, the previous low.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the “Spinning Top” candlestick pattern has shown a 60% win ratio and an average 5.5% return over the past year, with a maximum gain of 17.8% and a worst-case loss of -10.5%. These results align with the recent bearish trend seen in BELUSDT, where indecisive patterns like the doji and failed bullish attempts may suggest similar opportunities for contrarian trades. Traders could monitor a potential Spinning Top near the 0.1913–0.1937 range for a reversal signal, though the high volatility and drawdown risks require caution.