U.S. Beef Prices Hit All-Time Highs Amidst Cattle Inventory Crisis and Tariff Impacts

US beef prices have reached all-time highs due to the lowest cattle inventories in 73 years. Covid-19 disruptions, drought, and meatpacking consolidation have contributed to declining inventories. Tariffs and a ban on cattle imports from Mexico may limit imports, maintaining upward pressure on prices. US beef production is forecast to fall 4% in 2026, likely keeping prices high.

US beef prices have surged to all-time highs, driven by the lowest cattle inventories in 73 years. The average retail price of a pound of ground beef reached $5.98 in May, a 16% increase from the same period last year [1]. This price increase is a result of a combination of factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, drought in the western United States, and consolidation in the meatpacking industry.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to temporary closures of meat processing plants, disrupting the supply chain and reducing the number of cattle processed. Additionally, persistent drought in the western United States has forced farmers to cull their herds due to insufficient pastureland, further reducing cattle inventories. The number of beef cows on American farms is at its lowest level since the 1950s, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture [1].

Furthermore, the meatpacking industry has seen consolidation, leading to fewer processing plants and reduced slaughter capacity. This has exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, pushing up prices. The USDA predicts that beef prices will continue to increase through 2025, with a 4% decrease in production forecast for 2026 [2].

Tariffs and a ban on cattle imports from Mexico are also contributing to the upward pressure on beef prices. The US has reinstituted a ban on cattle imports from Mexico due to concerns about screwworm, a flesh-eating larvae that can spread throughout cattle herds. This ban, along with potential tariffs on Brazilian beef, could limit imports and further reduce supply [3].

The combination of these factors has led to a significant increase in beef prices. Consumers are feeling the impact, with prices for hamburgers, steaks, and other beef products rising. The US beef industry is facing a challenging period, with high prices and reduced supply expected to persist for the foreseeable future.

References:
[1] https://san.com/cc/heres-why-beef-prices-are-at-record-high/
[2] https://www.investopedia.com/why-beef-prices-keep-scaling-new-heights-11769774
[3] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-tariff-brazilian-goods-could-jack-up-us-burger-price-2025-07-10/