BCH Surges 2.48% as Yearly Gains Outweigh Monthly Slide

On OCT 24 2025, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) saw a 2.48% rise over the previous 24-hour period, closing at $493.1. The altcoin has experienced a 4.13% gain over the past seven days, though it has faced a 12.2% drawdown over the last month. Looking at a one-year time horizon, BCH has delivered a robust 13.28% return, indicating a stronger long-term trend despite recent volatility.

Technical indicators suggest a mixed signal for BCH’s near-term prospects. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have been trending downward, reflecting the recent monthly pullback. However, the 10-day and 20-day averages show a positive divergence, which analysts say could signal a reversal in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into the 50-60 range, indicating a shift from oversold to neutral territory, potentially supporting further upward movement. Momentum indicators, including MACD, are showing a narrowing convergence, suggesting that the market may be consolidating before the next directional move.

The recent price action appears to reflect growing institutional interest in BCH, with a number of on-chain analytics firms noting a steady increase in the number of active wallets and larger transaction sizes over the past month. Analysts project that this trend could continue as more institutional players evaluate BCH as a scalable Layer 2 option within the Bitcoin ecosystem. However, they caution that the broader market conditions remain fragile, with Bitcoin’s performance still acting as a key benchmark for altcoin sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

A recent event-driven backtest analyzed BCH’s performance on trading days where the coin closed at least 5% higher than the previous session. Between 2022-01-24 and 2025-04-10, there were five such events. The study examined the 30-day performance following each of these “event days” and found that the average cumulative excess return versus the S&P 500 peaked between +7% and +8% around days 19–27. The win-rate—measured as the share of events producing positive excess returns—rose from 60% on Day 1 to 80% by Days 4–30, suggesting a stronger likelihood of outperformance when holding the asset longer.

Statistically significant outperformance was observed on Days 19 and 27, implying that follow-through strength tends to emerge roughly three to four weeks after a large up-day. While the short-term returns (1–3 days) post-surge were positive, they were not statistically significant, reinforcing the idea that patience and a longer holding period may add value in this strategy. The backtest used the close price and a 30-day event-study window, with the event defined as a daily percentage change of at least 5%.