BBVA Stock Plummets 3.22% as Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Shift Amid Volatility

Bank Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA) closed the most recent session at €23.41, down 3.22%, marking a significant bearish reversal from the prior week’s high of €24.19. This decline, coupled with elevated volatility, suggests a potential shift in sentiment. Below is a technical analysis across multiple frameworks.

Candlestick Theory

Recent price action reveals a large bearish candle on 2026-01-06, characterized by a 3.22% drop, forming a potential shooting star pattern amid a prior bullish consolidation. Key support levels are identified at €23.32 (2026-01-06 low) and €22.87 (2025-12-18 low), with resistance at €24.19 (2026-01-05 high) and €23.99 (2025-12-02 high). The breakdown below €23.32 may indicate a continuation of the bearish trend, though a rebound to test €23.32 as support could signal a short-term reversal.

Moving Average Theory
Short-term momentum appears bearish, with the 50-day moving average (approximately €23.60–23.70) likely crossed below the 200-day MA (around €23.20–23.30), forming a death cross. The 100-day MA (€23.45–23.55) currently acts as a dynamic resistance. Price remains below all three MAs, reinforcing the downtrend. A sustained close above the 50-day MA may indicate a near-term reversal, but this is unlikely without a breakout above €24.19.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the line crossing below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator (K=25, D=30) suggests oversold conditions, but the divergence between price lows and K-line lows (e.g., 2025-12-31 vs. 2026-01-06) raises caution—overbought conditions may persist in the near term. A close above the 20-day MA or a bullish KDJ crossover could hint at a countertrend bounce, though confirmation is needed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with price touching the lower band (€23.32) on 2026-01-06, a classic oversold signal. The bands’ width (2.2% ATR) reflects heightened uncertainty. A rebound within the band’s midrange (€23.45–23.55) may occur, but a breakdown below the lower band could target the next support at €22.87.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume surged on the 2026-01-06 session (2.12 million shares), validating the bearish move. However, volume has declined on subsequent sessions, suggesting waning conviction. This mixed signal implies the downtrend may persist unless volume rebounds on a short-covering rally.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at ~28, indicating oversold territory. However, RSI divergence (lower lows vs. higher price lows) suggests the sell-off may not yet be exhausted. A rebound above 35 could trigger a short-term bounce, but a failure to hold above this level may extend the decline.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels from the recent high (€24.19) to low (€23.32) include 23.6% at €23.84 and 38.2% at €23.69. A test of these levels may occur before the 50% retracement at €23.55 becomes relevant. A breakdown below the 61.8% level (€23.18) would strengthen bearish bias.

Conclusion

Confluence between oversold RSI/Bollinger Bands and bearish MACD/KDJ suggests a high probability of a short-term rebound within €23.32–23.55. However, divergences in KDJ and RSI, combined with weak volume, caution against overreliance on a reversal. A sustained break below €23.15 (next Fibonacci level) would validate a deeper correction, aligning with the broader bearish trend. Traders should monitor volume and 50-day MA retests for confirmation.