BBVA Dips 0.64% As Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Pressure Near Key Resistance

Bank Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA) declined 0.64% in the latest session, closing at 15.54 after trading between 15.36 and 15.63 with volume of 1,564,417 shares. This analysis examines the technical posture using multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show bearish signals near resistance. The July 29th bullish candle (2.16% gain to 15.64) was negated by three consecutive bearish candles, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. Key support emerges at 15.23 (July 24th low), while resistance is established at 15.66 (July 29th high). A breakdown below 15.23 would expose the psychological 15.00 support, whereas closing above 15.66 could restart the uptrend.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (15.42) recently crossed below the 100-day MA (14.98), indicating medium-term weakening. However, both remain above the rising 200-day MA (14.20), confirming the primary uptrend. Current price (15.54) hovering near the 50-day MA suggests consolidation. A sustained break below the 100-day MA would signal deeper correction potential.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bearish crossover below the signal line with histogram in negative territory. KDJ readings (K:38, D:42, J:30) are approaching oversold levels but haven't triggered buy signals. This confluence suggests weakening momentum, though oversold KDJ readings may precede short-term bounces. No significant divergence is observed between the oscillators.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) show contraction with bandwidth near 3-month lows, indicating declining volatility and potential breakout. Price testing the middle band (15.40) signals equilibrium. A sustained break below the middle band may target the lower band (~15.10), while holding could retest the upper band (~15.70).
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume spikes accompanied the July 23rd rally (3.63% gain on 1.98M shares) and July 22nd advance (0.88% on 4.48M shares), confirming bullish conviction. Conversely, recent declines show moderated volume, suggesting limited selling pressure. The July 24th breakdown on high volume (1.80M shares) established 15.23 as validated support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 45, down from 68 in mid-July but holding above oversold territory. While RSI hasn't breached 30 since April, its failure to reach overbought (>70) during the July peak indicates waning bullish momentum. This neutral reading aligns with the current consolidation phase.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of 13.23 (February 28) and high of 15.94 (July 9), key levels are: 23.6% (15.11), 38.2% (14.82), and 50% (14.59). The recent test of 15.23 aligns with the 23.6% support. A breakdown may target the 38.2% level (14.82), which converges with the 100-day MA (14.98) and psychological 15.00 support.
Confluence and Probabilities
Confluence exists at 15.20-15.25 (July low, 23.6% Fibonacci, and volume-validated support). Multiple indicators agree on near-term bearish pressure (MACD crossover, MA crossunder, Bollinger midpoint test). However, the primary uptrend remains intact with the 200-day MA sloping upward. Probabilistically, failure to hold 15.20 may trigger a 3-5% correction toward 14.80, where the 38.2% Fibonacci and 100-day MA create strong support. A reversal above 15.66 would signal trend resumption.