BBVA's 2025 Q2 Earnings Call: Contradictions in Growth Strategy, Inflation, and Deposit Projections

Economic Recovery and Inflation Reduction:
- GDP growth is projected to be 5.5% year-over-year in 2025, reversing the 1.7% drop in 2024.
- The macroeconomic normalization process, including fiscal balance and tight monetary policy, has led to a disinflationary trend, with expectations for a year-over-year inflation rate of 28% by the end of 2025.

Credit and Deposit Growth:
- BBVA Argentina's market share of total private loans rose 107 bps from 10.54% in June 2024 to 11.61% in June 2025.
- Private sector deposits grew by 32% in the first 6 months of 2025, surpassing the level of inflation, with the bank's consolidated market share reaching 9.64%.

Regulatory Impact and Foreign Currency Trading:
- The lifting of exchange controls and the implementation of a floating exchange rate scheme positively impacted BBVA's results, leading to increased foreign currency trading activity and gains.
- The bank saw a 23.5% growth in financing and refinancing of exports, indicating a boost in foreign currency activity.

Loan Portfolio Expansion and Asset Quality:
- The peso loan portfolio expanded by 43% year-to-date, outpacing the system average of 39%.
- While nonperforming loans (NPLs) increased to 2.28% in June 2025, BBVA maintained a ratio below the system average of 2.55%, demonstrating strong credit risk management.

Profitability and Efficiency:
- BBVA Argentina's adjusted net income in Q2 2025 was ARS 59.6 billion, with a quarterly ROE of 7.6% and a quarterly ROA of 1.2%.
- The bank maintained a stable efficiency ratio of 56.5%, driven by proactive efficiency measures and strict cost control.