BASF Projects 2025 EBITDA to Range from EUR 7.3 bln to EUR 7.7 bln

BASF expects its EBITDA before special items to be between EUR 7.3 bln and EUR 7.7 bln in 2025. The chemical company is the world's largest in its industry, with a portfolio of functional products, high-performance materials, chemicals, agrochemicals, and other products. Its net sales are distributed across various regions, with the largest share coming from Europe.

Ludwigshafen, Germany – BASF SE, the world's leading chemical company, has released preliminary figures for the second quarter of 2025 and adjusted its outlook for the full year. Despite a decline in sales, the company reported EBITDA before special items of €1.77 billion, aligning with analyst expectations. However, the outlook for the full year 2025 has been revised downward due to ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [1].

Second Quarter 2025 Performance

In the second quarter of 2025, BASF's sales decreased by 2.1% to €15.77 billion, primarily due to negative currency effects and lower prices, particularly in the Chemicals segment. Despite this, volumes increased slightly compared to the prior year, driven by growth in the Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies segments. The EBITDA before special items for the second quarter was €1.77 billion, matching analyst consensus but down from €1.96 billion in the prior year. The free cash flow for the quarter was €0.53 billion, up from €0.47 billion in the second quarter of 2024.

Outlook for 2025

BASF has adjusted its assumptions for 2025, reflecting a slower global economic growth rate. The company expects the global GDP to grow by 2.0% to 2.5%, industrial production to increase by 1.8% to 2.3%, and chemical production to grow by 2.5% to 3.0%. The euro/dollar exchange rate is now expected to average $1.15 per euro, and the average annual oil price is projected to be $70 per barrel. As a result, BASF has revised its EBITDA before special items outlook for 2025 to between €7.3 billion and €7.7 billion, down from the previously forecast €8.0 billion to €8.4 billion. The free cash flow is expected to range between €0.4 billion and €0.8 billion, compared to the previous estimate of €0.4 billion to €0.8 billion.

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors

The adjustment in outlook is primarily driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. The U.S. tariffs announced in early April have led to significant uncertainties in the market, resulting in a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against the euro. Additionally, the growth of global industrial production is expected to slow down, putting pressure on market demand for chemical products.

Conclusion

BASF's revised outlook reflects the company's cautious approach to the current economic environment. Despite the downward revision, the company's performance in the second quarter of 2025 was in line with analyst expectations, suggesting a resilient business model. Investors should closely monitor the company's Half-Year Financial Report, scheduled for release on July 30, 2025.

References

[1] https://www.finanzen.at/nachrichten/aktien/eqs-adhoc-basf-se-basf-group-releases-preliminary-figures-for-second-quarter-of-2025-and-adjusts-outlook-for-full-year-2025-1034889955