Barrick Mining Surges 7.18% on Four-Day Streak, 22.61% Cumulative Gain Amid Technical Bullish Signals

Barrick Mining (B) has surged 7.18% on the most recent session, extending a four-day winning streak with a cumulative gain of 22.61%. The price action reflects strong bullish momentum, with recent highs at 35.7 and lows at 34.04 forming a tightening consolidation pattern. Key support levels appear to be establishing at 30.07 (2025-09-18) and 26.15 (2025-08-25), while resistance clusters near 33.2 (2025-09-19) and 35.7 suggest a critical breakout threshold. Bullish candlestick formations, such as the recent long-bodied green candles with short wicks, indicate strong conviction in the upward move, though elongated upper shadows hint at potential profit-taking near 35.7.

Candlestick Theory

The price has formed a multi-week bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows, suggesting institutional accumulation. A potential bearish reversal pattern, such as a shooting star or evening star, would require a close below 30.07 to confirm. Conversely, a breakout above 35.7 with increased volume could validate a new short-term resistance level.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is reinforced by the 50-day moving average, which has risen into alignment with the 100-day MA, both currently below the 200-day MA. This "bullish convergence" suggests a medium-term uptrend, though the 200-day MA remains a critical threshold. If the price sustains above 30.105 (the 100-day MA level as of 2025-09-18), it may trigger a retest of the 200-day MA (~28.5), which could act as dynamic support. Divergence between the 50-day and 200-day MAs—should the 50-day MA dip below the 200-day—would signal weakening momentum.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has expanded into positive territory, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, affirming bullish momentum. However, the RSI’s overbought condition (~70) and the KDJ indicator’s stochastic overbought reading (~85) suggest caution. While the K line remains above the D line, a bearish crossover or a failure to exceed prior highs on the KDJ could precede a pullback. The MACD’s positive divergence from price (e.g., lower lows in the histogram during a price rally) would strengthen bearish signals.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked, with the price testing the upper band at 35.7. This expansion suggests a breakout phase, but the narrowest band contraction observed in early August (e.g., 2025-08-05) implies a prior period of consolidation. A retest of the lower band (~26.63) could occur if the upper band breakout fails, though the current positioning near the upper band suggests continued short-term bullish bias.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during the recent rally, peaking at 51.7 million shares on the most recent session. This aligns with the price action, validating the strength of the upward move. However, a divergence—such as declining volume on higher closes—would weaken the bullish case. The volume profile also shows a "volume exhaustion" pattern if the next rally occurs on lower volume than the 51.7 million shares threshold.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI is currently in overbought territory (~70), consistent with the four-day rally. While this typically signals a potential pullback, the RSI’s failure to form lower highs during the recent advance suggests the uptrend may persist. A drop below 50 would indicate weakening momentum, while a sustained close above 60 would reaffirm bullish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 21.12 (2025-07-31) to 35.7 (2025-09-22) move include 61.8% at ~28.3 and 38.2% at ~29.8. A pullback to these levels could trigger a retest of the 28.3 support before resuming the uptrend. The 50% retracement (~28.8) aligns with prior consolidation ranges, making it a probable pivot zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy of buying Barrick Mining when RSI exceeds 70 and selling the next day has demonstrated a poor risk-reward profile, with an average daily return of -0.02% and a maximum drawdown of 15.3%. This outcome underscores the limitations of relying solely on RSI overbought signals in a strong trending environment. While the current RSI overbought condition aligns with the technical indicators’ bullish bias, the historical performance suggests that additional filters—such as volume confirmation or Fibonacci support—are necessary to mitigate the risk of false breakouts. The confluence of moving averages, Bollinger Band expansion, and Fibonacci retracement levels provides a more robust framework for timing entries, particularly if the price consolidates at the 28.3–29.8 range before resuming the uptrend.