Barrick Mining's Q1 Gold Sales Volumes Down 17% YoY: Q2 Outlook Uncertain

Barrick Mining Corporation reported a 17% YoY decline in Q1 2025 gold sales volumes to 751,000 ounces due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine and lower production across Carlin and Cortez. The decline poses critical implications for volume growth, which is essential for maintaining margins and meeting growth targets. Despite a tepid production forecast for 2025, Barrick's shares have gained 36.3% YoY.

Barrick Mining Corporation (TSX: ABX) reported a 17% year-over-year (YoY) decline in Q1 2025 gold sales volumes to 751,000 ounces. This decrease was primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali and lower production across Carlin and Cortez mines. The decline in volumes poses critical implications for Barrick's ability to leverage higher gold prices, maintain margin expansion, and meet growth targets for 2025 and beyond.

The company's first-quarter results showed a 14% decline in top-line revenue and a 52% decrease in net earnings. This contraction in volumes was driven by the ongoing dispute with the Malian government over the division of economic benefits, which led to the suspension of operations at Loulo-Gounkoto. Additionally, lower production at Carlin and Cortez mines contributed to the decline.

Despite the challenges, Barrick's shares have gained 36.3% year-to-date compared to the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's rise of 53%. The company's stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 9.44, which is a roughly 21.7% discount compared to the industry average of 12.06X. Analysts remain bullish on Barrick's prospects, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings implying a year-over-year rise of 55.6% and 24.1%, respectively.

Barrick's strategic focus on building sustainable long-term value through Tier 1 assets and a growing copper portfolio, as well as the potential restart of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, could provide an upside to the company's financial performance. However, the company's ability to maintain margins and meet growth targets will depend on its ability to achieve volume growth in the coming quarters.

References:
[1] https://www.fool.ca/2025/07/29/barrick-mining-buy-sell-or-hold-in-july-2025/
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:cdcc10e31094b:0-barrick-mining-s-gold-sales-volumes-decline-will-it-rebound-in-q2/
[3] https://www.barchart.com/story/news/33812075/barrick-mining-s-gold-sales-volumes-decline-will-it-rebound-in-q2