BARK Surges 25% on Go-Private Bid Speculation: Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• BARK’s stock price surged 25.36% intraday to $0.7756, driven by a preliminary all-cash take-private proposal at $0.90 per share.
• Trading volume spiked to 12.89 million shares, with turnover rate hitting 13.14%, signaling heightened institutional interest.
• The 52-week high of $2.04 remains distant, but the stock’s short-term bullish momentum is reinforced by a K-line pattern and elevated RSI.

BARK’s explosive move has ignited speculation about a potential delisting, with the stock trading near its intraday high of $0.8244. The go-private proposal, though non-binding, has triggered a surge in call option activity and positioned the stock as a focal point in the specialty retail sector. Investors are now weighing the likelihood of the bid’s success against the company’s weak fundamentals, including a -3.76 P/E ratio and a 52-week low of $0.53.

Go-Private Proposal Ignites Short-Term Bullish Momentum
The 25.36% intraday rally in BARK shares was directly triggered by a non-binding all-cash take-private proposal from Great Dane at $0.90 per share. This price represents a 22.5% premium to BARK’s previous close of $0.6187 and a 23.5% discount to its 52-week high of $2.04. The proposal, though preliminary, has created a floor for short-term buyers, with options data showing heavy call option volume at the $1 strike price. Institutional investors, including SHAY CAPITAL LLC and COMMONWEALTH EQUITY SERVICES, have also added to their positions in Q3 2025, signaling confidence in the stock’s near-term trajectory.

Specialty Retail Sector Gains Momentum as Petco (WOOF) Leads with 5.74% Rally
BARK’s 25.36% surge outperformed its specialty retail peers, including Petco (WOOF), which rose 5.74% on the same day. The sector’s broader momentum is driven by AI-driven retail innovations and holiday season demand, as highlighted in recent sector news. While WOOF’s rally reflects improved consumer confidence in pet care services, BARK’s move is more speculative, tied to the go-private bid. The disparity underscores BARK’s unique catalyst versus sector-wide trends.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Bets
• MACD: -0.0326 (below signal line), RSI: 47.34 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band at $0.6840
• 200-day MA: $0.9214 (above current price), 30-day MA: $0.6342 (below), Support/Resistance: 0.6135–0.6169 (30D), 0.804–0.8216 (200D)

Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA at $0.9214 and the 200D resistance at $0.8216. A break above $0.8216 could trigger a retest of the 52-week high, while a pullback to the 30D support at $0.6135 may reignite short-term buying. The RSI’s neutral reading suggests no immediate overbought/oversold conditions, but the MACD’s bearish crossover indicates caution for long-term bulls.

Top Options Picks:
• BARK20260220C1 (Call, $1 strike, 2026-02-20):
- IV: 30.00% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 10.97% (high), Delta: 0.0052 (low), Theta: -0.000018 (low decay), Gamma: 0.1976 (high sensitivity), Turnover: 4,274 (high liquidity)
- This deep-out-of-the-money call offers explosive potential if the go-private bid is confirmed. The high gamma ensures rapid premium growth with a price move above $1, while the low delta makes it a speculative, high-risk/high-reward play. Projected payoff at 5% upside (to $0.8144) is $0.8144 - $1 = $0.00 (no profit), but a 10% move to $0.8536 yields $0.8536 - $1 = $0.00 (still no profit).
• BARK20260821C1 (Call, $1 strike, 2026-08-21):
- IV: 90.50% (elevated), Leverage Ratio: 5.12% (moderate), Delta: 0.5061 (moderate), Theta: -0.000532 (high decay), Gamma: 0.7357 (very high), Turnover: 17,966 (extremely liquid)
- This at-the-money call balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a mid-term hold. The high gamma ensures sensitivity to price swings, while the elevated IV reflects market uncertainty. A 5% upside to $0.8144 yields $0.8144 - $1 = $0.00 (no profit), but a 10% move to $0.8536 results in $0.8536 - $1 = $0.00 (still no profit).

Trading Hook: Aggressive bulls should prioritize BARK20260821C1 for a mid-term hold, while speculative traders may dabble in BARK20260220C1 if the bid is confirmed. Watch for a break above $0.8216 to validate the bullish case.

Backtest BARK Stock Performance
Backtesting the performance of BARK after a hypothetical 25% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals a strategy that not only failed to capitalize on the increase but also resulted in significant underperformance. The backtest shows an 84.83% loss, with a benchmark return of 42.97% and an excess return of -127.81%. The strategy's Sharpe ratio is -0.49, indicating substantial risk, while the maximum drawdown is 0%, suggesting the strategy was liquidated before incurring further losses.

BARK’s 25% Rally: A Go-Private Bid or a Short-Lived Hype?
BARK’s 25.36% surge hinges on the go-private bid’s confirmation and the stock’s ability to hold above $0.8216. While the 200-day MA at $0.9214 remains a distant target, the current technical setup favors a short-term bullish bias. Investors should monitor the bid’s progress and institutional buying patterns, as seen in Q3 2025. Meanwhile, the sector’s strength, led by WOOF’s 5.74% rally, suggests broader retail optimism. For now, BARK20260821C1 offers a balanced leveraged play, but caution is warranted if the stock fails to retest the 200D resistance. Act now: Secure BARK20260821C1 if the bid is extended, or pivot to cash if the stock retraces below $0.6135.