Barclays sees Mexican inflation at 4.1% by end of 2026

Recent surveys indicate that Mexican core inflation is projected to reach 4.1% by year-end 2026, reflecting a slight upward revision from prior estimates. According to the Citi Mexico Expectations Survey conducted on February 4, 2026, the median forecast for core inflation rose to 4.1% from 4.0% in the previous survey, while headline inflation expectations remained steady at 4.0%. Analysts attribute the adjustment to persistent price pressures, with January's core inflation recorded at 0.58% month-over-month (4.49% year-over-year), slightly above December's figures.

The survey also highlights expectations of monetary policy easing, with 20 out of 35 respondents anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut by Banxico at the May meeting. The policy rate is projected to stabilize at 6.50% by end-2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso is forecast to strengthen, with USDMXN expected to trade at 18.35 by year-end 2026, down from 18.75 in the prior survey.

GDP growth projections for 2026 were revised upward to 1.4%, reflecting improved economic confidence, while 2027 growth remains unchanged at 1.8%. Global inflation risks, including energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions, remain a concern, though Mexico's inflation trajectory appears aligned with central bank expectations. These developments underscore a cautious outlook for price stability amid evolving external and domestic dynamics.

Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, February 4, 2026.