Barclays cuts 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel

Barclays cuts 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel

Barclays has revised its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast downward, reducing it by $4 to $70 per barrel. This adjustment reflects the ongoing uncertainty in the oil market, exacerbated by recent geopolitical developments and macroeconomic conditions. The bank's downgrade follows a series of negative events, including the implementation of U.S. tariffs and the expansion of OPEC+ production increases.

Barclays' latest outlook indicates that the price of Brent crude could fall to $70 per barrel by the end of 2025, a significant decrease from its previous forecast of $74 per barrel. This adjustment underscores the bank's cautious stance on the oil sector, citing persistent uncertainties and the potential for resilient companies to adjust their spending plans in response to downside risks [1].

The bank also downgraded several major oil stocks, including Chevron (NYSE:CVX) to Equal Weight and Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) and Net Power to Underweight. This move is based on the expectation that costs will be a key focus for companies in the coming quarters, with an emphasis on optimizing expenses amidst the current market conditions [1].

Redburn Atlantic, another prominent financial institution, has also issued a cautious outlook for the oil market. Redburn forecasts that Brent crude could fall to $57.50 per barrel by the end of 2025 due to oversupply and weak demand. The firm expects a market surplus of 1 million barrels per day next year and has cut its 2025 average oil price estimate to $75-$64 per barrel [1].

These forecasts align with recent market developments, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) lowering of its oil price forecast from $74 per barrel in March to $68 per barrel in April. The EIA predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil will be below $70 per barrel in 2025 and fall to just over $60 per barrel by 2026 [2].

The global economic slowdown and the reversal of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts have further exacerbated the downward pressure on oil prices. Goldman Sachs analysts have also predicted that Brent crude oil and US WTI crude oil prices will fall to $63 and $59 per barrel respectively for the remainder of 2025, and further decline to $58 and $55 per barrel in 2026 [2].

In summary, the oil market remains volatile and uncertain, with major financial institutions downgrading their price forecasts and adjusting their ratings on key oil stocks. Investors should closely monitor these developments and consider the potential implications for their portfolios.

References:
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barclays-redburn-downgrade-oil-stocks-145557111.html
[2] https://nai500.com/blog/2025/04/oil-and-natural-gas-price-forecast-for-2025%EF%BC%88updated-in-april%EF%BC%89/