US Bankers Predict Significant Deposit Growth in Next 12 Months: S&P Survey

US bankers expect a surge in deposits over the next 12 months, according to a survey by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, the majority of respondents are optimistic about deposit growth. The survey found that bankers are cautiously optimistic about the future, with 70% expecting deposit growth over the next year. This is a positive sign for the banking industry, as deposits are a key source of funding for banks.

US bankers are optimistic about a surge in deposits over the next 12 months, according to a survey by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly those stemming from President Donald Trump's tariff policies, the majority of respondents are bullish on deposit growth. The survey found that 81.1% of respondents expect deposits to grow at their institutions over the next year, marking the highest mark since the fourth quarter of 2022 [1].

The positive sentiment reflects the banking industry's favorable outlook on net interest income as deposit costs continue to drop. The US banking industry recorded total deposit growth of greater than 1% on both an aggregate and median basis in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing loan growth [1]. This growth is largely attributed to demand deposits.

However, the survey also reveals a cautious outlook. While 70% of respondents expect deposit growth, there is a notable increase in the proportion of respondents expecting a decline in small business and wholesale or brokered deposits over the next year. The proportion expecting a drop in small business deposits rose to 19.8%, and for wholesale or brokered deposits, it increased to 15.1% [1].

The survey also indicates that deposit competition is expected to rise in their respective market areas over the next six months. Among those surveyed, 49.5% reported increased competition for deposits in their market area over the past 12 months, and 50.5% anticipate heightened competition in the next six months [1].

The interest rate outlook for the end of 2025 is also notable. The median expected interest rate on interest-bearing transaction accounts is 0.75%, while the median expected rate for savings accounts, including money market deposit accounts, is 1.75%. Additionally, the median expected rate for a 1-year certificate of deposit is 3.25% [1].

The survey findings suggest a mixed but generally positive outlook for the US banking industry. While there are concerns about the composition of deposits and increased competition, the overall expectation of deposit growth is a positive sign for the industry.

References:
[1] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813982-bankers-expect-upswing-deposits-next-12-months-sp-survey
[2] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-rbc-bmo-planning-2-billion-sale-of-moneris-sources-say/
[3] https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/bankers-expect-an-upswing-in-deposits-over-the-next-12-months-s-and-p-survey