El incremento de las tasas del Banco de Japón y sus implicaciones en los mercados globales

The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) anticipated rate hike to 0.75% in December 2025 marks a pivotal shift in its decades-long ultra-loose monetary policy. This move, the highest in 30 years, reflects sustained inflation above the 2% target and signs of durable wage growth. As Japan's central bank normalizes policy, the ripple effects on global capital flows, currency volatility, and emerging market equities are poised to reshape risk appetite and asset allocation strategies in 2026.

Capital Flows and the Carry Trade Unwinding

The Boj's tightening cycle threatens to disrupt the yen carry trade-a long-standing pillar of global liquidity. For years, investors borrowed low-yielding yen to fund higher-yielding assets in U.S. equities, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies. With the Boj raising rates to 0.75%, the cost of yen borrowing will rise, prompting a potential unwinding of these trades. This could trigger a reversal of capital flows back into Japan, reducing liquidity in risk-on assets and increasing pressure on leveraged positions.

For example, Bitcoin and emerging market equities, which have historically thrived on cheap yen financing, may face downward pressure as investors deleverage. A Bloomberg report notes that the Boj's tightening could lead to a 25–30% drop in Bitcoin prices, underscoring the sensitivity of speculative assets to shifting monetary conditions.

Currency Volatility and Yen Dynamics

The yen's trajectory will be a critical barometer of the Boj's policy shift. A stronger yen could emerge as capital returns to Japan, potentially exacerbating volatility in currency markets. This dynamic is particularly relevant for the U.S. dollar, which has been 32% above its median real valuation in 2025. A weaker dollar in 2026, as projected by Cambridge Associates, could alleviate debt burdens for emerging markets and support their equities.

However, the short-term risks are pronounced. A rapid yen appreciation could strain emerging economies with dollar-denominated debt, forcing central banks to tighten policies preemptively. This scenario highlights the dual-edged nature of the Boj's rate hikes: while they signal a healthier Japanese economy, they also introduce volatility that could ripple through global financial systems.

Emerging Market Equities: A Tale of Two Scenarios

Emerging market equities face a complex outlook. In the immediate term, the unwinding of yen carry trades may weigh on these markets, as seen in historical precedents where tightening in Japan led to risk-off sentiment. Yet, 2026 offers a more optimistic horizon. A weaker dollar, coupled with easing trade tensions and improved regional growth, could drive emerging market equities higher. Cambridge Associates projects that these markets will outperform in local currency terms, supported by a 3.1% global GDP growth forecast.

Investors must also consider asset allocation shifts. A UniCredit report recommends modestly overweighting global ex-U.S. equities, which have outperformed U.S. counterparts by 4.4 percentage points in 2025. This trend is expected to continue as growth outside the U.S. gains momentum.

Asset Allocation Strategies for 2026

The Boj's tightening cycle demands a recalibration of portfolios. Investors are advised to:
1. Overweight global ex-U.S. equities for their attractive valuations and growth potential.
2. Focus on developed market small-cap stocks, which offer strong fundamentals and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
3. Reassess exposure to yen-based financing, as higher borrowing costs could reshape leverage strategies.

These strategies align with a broader shift toward diversification, as markets adjust to the Boj's normalization and the U.S. Federal Reserve's potential easing cycle.

Conclusion

The Boj's rate hikes represent a watershed moment for global markets. While the immediate risks of capital flow reversals and currency volatility are real, the long-term outlook for emerging markets and global equities remains cautiously optimistic. Investors who adapt to these shifting dynamics-by rebalancing portfolios and prioritizing liquidity-will be better positioned to navigate the uncertainties of 2026.