Band/Tether Market Overview

• Band/Tether (BANDUSDT) edged higher over the last 24 hours, with a key breakout attempt above 0.65.
• Momentum remains mixed; RSI suggests moderate overbought levels, but price action shows no clear reversal signals.
• Volatility expanded after 23:00 ET, with volume surging above 40k in a key bullish 15-minute candle.
• Bollinger Bands widened after 00:00 ET, indicating heightened uncertainty and potential for further consolidation or breakouts.
• Notable divergence in volume and price during the afternoon ET suggests caution in interpreting closing momentum.

Market Overview

Band/Tether (BANDUSDT) opened at 0.631 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.656, a low of 0.63, and closed at 0.649 on 2025-09-27 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, total traded volume amounted to 622,686.5 units, with notional turnover of $398,148.69. The pair displayed a bullish bias during the overnight and early morning hours, with significant volume surges reinforcing the move.

Structure & Formations

BANDUSDT found key support at 0.645–0.647 and resistance at 0.65–0.653 over the 24-hour period. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 02:45 ET, confirming a reversal from a downtrend. A morning session bearish rejection at 0.653 may signal caution, but the price has shown resilience near these levels. A doji appeared near 0.652 at 09:00 ET, suggesting indecision but not necessarily a reversal. A strong 15-minute bullish pinbar at 00:00 ET indicated a possible short-term bottom.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key support levels during the afternoon, but a bullish crossover occurred at 04:00 ET, suggesting a short-term reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 200-period MA, indicating a bearish bias in the longer term, though the 100-period MA shows a flattening trend, suggesting weakening bear momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the zero line during the overnight hours and remained positive, supporting the bullish bias. RSI hit overbought levels near 70 at 00:45 and 03:00 ET, indicating strong momentum but without immediate bearish divergence. A bearish RSI divergence occurred during the morning session as price declined but RSI remained elevated, suggesting potential for a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 00:00 ET, with the price reaching the upper band at 0.656. This suggests increased volatility and potential for a consolidation phase or a continuation move. The price stayed within the bands for most of the day, with no significant breakouts, indicating that the move remained within expected volatility parameters.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 40k at 00:45 ET and again at 10:45 ET, aligning with key price movements. The volume profile showed a clear divergence during the morning, as price declined while volume remained elevated, suggesting potential exhaustion in the bearish move. Notional turnover reached a peak at 03:45 ET and has since remained stable, indicating that the market is consolidating.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.63 to 0.656 shows that the price found support at 0.645 (38.2%), 0.641 (50%), and 0.637 (61.8%). A key retracement level at 0.65 (61.8% of the swing) was tested twice and held during the morning session, suggesting that the 0.653–0.656 area may offer strong resistance. For the daily chart, a major 61.8% retracement level at 0.65 appears to be a significant psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described aims to capture short-term breakouts using the 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI divergence as a filter. Given today’s price action, the strategy would have triggered a long signal at 04:00 ET when the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA and RSI was still in bullish territory. A stop loss would have been placed below the 0.645 support level. The strategy appears well-aligned with today’s momentum and volatility patterns, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours when the strongest moves occurred.