Baidu Stock Jumps 7.81% Extending 15.05% Four Day Rally As Technicals Turn Bullish

Baidu (BIDU) concluded the most recent session with a significant 7.81% surge, extending its winning streak to four consecutive days. This rally represents a notable 15.05% gain over this short period, signaling strong bullish momentum entering the market. The comprehensive technical analysis below evaluates this move within the context of the provided historical price data.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action features a series of robust bullish candles, culminating in the latest large-bodied green candle closing near its high ($123.79 after a $116.86-$124.79 range). This pattern, following a consolidation candle on September 15th (small real body near $114.82), indicates strong buying conviction and a potential breakout. Key resistance is identified at approximately $124.50-$125.00, aligning with the September 16th high and the psychological $125 level. Immediate support rests around $116.50 (recent minor swing low) and a more significant support zone near $109-$110, marked by the September 11th close and prior resistance.
Moving Average Theory
The price has decisively breached several key moving averages. The 50-day moving average (approx. $100 based on recent data) has been surpassed, and the price now trades well above the 100-day (approx. $92-$93) and 200-day (approx. $91) moving averages. This configuration suggests a robust medium to long-term bullish trend has potentially emerged after basing. The sequence of the price moving from below to substantially above the 50-day and 100-day averages confirms improving short and medium-term momentum. The 200-day average provides a solid long-term support baseline.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD line is above its signal line and rising decisively above the zero line. The histogram bars are expanding positively, offering strong confirmation of building bullish momentum and a potential new uptrend phase. KDJ oscillators (especially K and D lines) are situated in the overbought territory (typically considered above 80), with the J line potentially exceeding 100. While this signals strong upward thrust, it also suggests the potential for a near-term pullback or consolidation phase due to over-extension. However, no bearish divergences are yet evident on these indicators.
Bollinger Bands
Price action on September 16th challenged the upper Bollinger Band ($124.79 high vs an upper band likely near $123-124), indicating stretched conditions on the upside within the current volatility framework. This occurred alongside a significant expansion in the bands, reflecting increased volatility accompanying the strong upside move. A touch of the upper band can sometimes precede a consolidation, but the concurrent band expansion often signifies continuation potential after a brief pause.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakout is strongly validated by volume. The significant price surge on September 16th (+7.81%) occurred on the highest single-day volume within the dataset (11,774,069 shares), demonstrating substantial buyer conviction and institutional participation. The preceding three up days also saw above-average volume compared to the consolidation days (e.g., Sept 15th), confirming accumulation. This robust volume profile significantly increases the sustainability probability of the recent breakout move.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI is calculated to be in the range of 76-78 using the standard 14-period formula, placing it firmly in overbought territory (above 70). This signifies a technically overextended move in the near term and may indicate an increased risk of a short-term pullback or sideways consolidation to alleviate this condition. However, it's crucial to emphasize that in strong trending markets, the RSI can remain overbought for extended periods without an immediate reversal. Traders should therefore view this as a warning of potential exhaustion, not necessarily a direct sell signal, especially given the strong confluence of bullish signals elsewhere.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the downtrend from the April 2025 peak ($105.29) to the significant low near $77.43 (Feb 2025) provides crucial levels. The critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level lies around $124.50, coinciding perfectly with the recent September 16th high ($124.79) and the identified resistance zone. This level now becomes a critical threshold. A confirmed breach above $125 would be highly significant, targeting the 78.6% retracement level near $134.50. Downside, the 38.2% retracement near $107.50 and the 50% level near $111.35 offer potential support zones during pullbacks.
Confluence Points & Divergences
A significant confluence of resistance exists near $124.50 - $125.00, combining the key Fibonacci level (61.8%), the Bollinger Band upper limit, the recent swing high, and psychological resistance. A decisive close above this zone would be a very bullish technical signal. Currently, there is positive confluence supporting the overall uptrend: strong bullish volume validates price gains, MACD shows strengthening momentum above zero, and the price structure is above key moving averages. No notable bearish divergences are detected between price and key oscillators (MACD, RSI, KDJ) at this stage, though the overbought RSI warrants caution for near-term entry timing. The primary risks center on overcoming the $125 confluence resistance and the potential for a technical pullback due to the stretched RSI and KDJ conditions before continuation.