AXT Inc. shares surge 13.35% on renewed earnings upside speculation amid supply chain adjustments

AXT Inc. shares surged 13.3495% in pre-market trading on Dec. 19, 2025, signaling a sharp reversal in investor sentiment following weeks of volatility. The jump marked one of the largest single-session gains in the stock’s recent history, driven by renewed speculation about potential earnings upside amid supply chain adjustments in its core semiconductor materials segment.

Analysts noted the move coincided with quiet period expiration for key stakeholders, suggesting strategic position-building by institutional investors. While no official earnings or guidance was released, technical indicators showed heavy buying pressure above critical resistance levels, with momentum metrics flashing bullish divergence patterns. The move outpired broader tech sector benchmarks by over 150 basis points in early trading.

Market participants remain cautious about sustainability, given AXT’s exposure to cyclical demand swings in the memory chip industry. However, the pre-market rally reflects improved risk appetite as global PMI data showed unexpected resilience in December. Traders are now pricing in a 65% probability of a post-earnings breakout above $18, based on options chain positioning and short-interest data.

Despite the recent volatility, the underlying fundamentals of AXT’s business suggest it is well-positioned to benefit from the long-term shift toward AI and high-performance computing. Recent capital expenditures in wafer fabrication and materials innovation have enhanced the firm’s competitive position. While short-term uncertainty remains, long-term investors may be eyeing the move as a potential entry point.