AXLBTC Market Overview: 2025-09-26 12:00 ET

• Price declined from 2.65e-06 to 2.61e-06 before rebounding to close near 2.67e-06 at 12:00 ET
• RSI indicated oversold conditions early in the session, followed by a momentum reversal
• Volatility expanded during the overnight rebound, with volume surging to over 13,000 units
• Bollinger Bands signaled a tightening range before the breakout attempt began
• Notional turnover was low during the initial decline but spiked sharply during the bullish reversal

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26, Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) opened at 2.65e-06, hit a low of 2.61e-06, and closed at 2.67e-06, with a high of 2.68e-06. Total volume reached 46,705.9 units, and notional turnover remained moderate due to the small size of Axelar. The session saw a bearish start, followed by a strong reversal overnight and into the early morning.

Structure & Formations

The price action showed a key support level forming at 2.61e-06, which was tested and held, followed by a bullish reversal as prices moved above 2.65e-06 again. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 03:00 and 03:15 ET, signaling a potential trend shift. A doji near 2.68e-06 suggests indecision at the upper end of the recent range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above the price during the reversal, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The 50-period line acted as a dynamic support, while the 20-period line confirmed the strength of the upward move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory during the overnight rebound, confirming a shift in momentum. RSI dropped into the 30–35 range during the early session, suggesting oversold conditions, and recovered to mid-50s by mid-morning, aligning with the bullish price action. The RSI may signal further strength if it rises above 55, but overbought conditions are unlikely in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, with a brief contraction observed between 01:30 and 03:00 ET. The subsequent breakout from the lower band suggested a potential short-term reversal. Price settled near the upper band by 12:00 ET, indicating a continuation of the bullish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated in the bearish phase of the session, with a notable spike during the overnight rebound. Notional turnover followed volume closely, with the largest trades occurring between 02:00 and 03:00 ET as prices rebounded from 2.61e-06. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, suggesting the bullish move was well-supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the key 15-minute swing from 2.61e-06 to 2.68e-06, the 61.8% retracement level was reached near 2.65e-06, which coincided with a short-term pullback. The price then moved to test the 78.6% level, which was just below the closing level. On the daily chart, 2.61e-06 appears to act as a strong support level, with the 38.2% retracement near 2.64e-06 offering potential resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on a bullish engulfing pattern and a breakout above a 50-period moving average could have entered the trade between 03:00 and 03:15 ET. Stop-loss placement could have been set below 2.61e-06, with a target at 2.68e-06 or higher. Given the confirmation from MACD and RSI, the trade was well-aligned with the momentum indicators, suggesting a potential short-term success. However, the doji at 2.68e-06 signals caution for further upward movement.

The market appears to have found a short-term base at 2.61e-06, with bullish momentum increasing as volume and price aligned during the overnight session. While the current move suggests a possible continuation of the upward trend, a pullback or consolidation could occur if the 2.68e-06 level fails to hold. Investors should remain cautious and monitor volume and RSI for signs of overextension or reversal.