Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• AXSUSDT declined sharply from $1.24 to $1.146, driven by heavy bearish volume and momentum.
• Key support around $1.16–$1.17 tested multiple times, with potential for further downside if broken.
• 15-minute RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, hinting at short-term rebound potential.

Market Movement

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at $1.23 at 12:00 ET–1 and fell to a 24-hour low of $1.146 before closing at $1.178 at 12:00 ET. The pair experienced a bearish 9.02% drop over 24 hours, with total volume reaching approximately 566,161.91 and total turnover hitting $680,017.73. The decline was characterized by a sharp sell-off from 20:30 to 04:45 ET, during which the price dropped over $0.10 in seven hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action reveals several key support levels in the $1.16–$1.18 range, which has been tested multiple times during the session. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 20:30 ET, indicating strong selling pressure. Doji patterns appeared at 05:15 and 07:45 ET, suggesting potential pauses in the downtrend. Resistance is currently at $1.20–$1.21, which has repeatedly failed to hold against bearish momentum.

Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both turned downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price is currently below both, and the 50-period MA acts as dynamic resistance. Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating rising volatility during the sell-off. Price has moved below the lower band at $1.14–$1.15, suggesting an overextended position that could see a short-term retrace.

Momentum and Fibonacci Levels

The RSI is currently at oversold levels, hovering near 30, and could trigger a short-term bounce. MACD remains negative, with bearish divergence suggesting continuation of the trend. On the Fibonacci scale, the 61.8% retracement level is at $1.18, which may offer a near-term floor if the $1.16 support fails.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further evaluate the potential of the current bearish momentum, a backtesting strategy using the 14-period RSI is being considered. The strategy involves entering long positions when RSI falls below 30 (oversold) and exiting when it crosses back above 30, aiming to capture short-term reversals. However, the initial data retrieval for the AXS/USDT RSI series returned an error likely due to an incorrect ticker format. To proceed, please confirm the exact exchange and symbol format (e.g., BINANCE:AXSUSDT or another venue) or allow a symbol search across supported platforms. Once the correct identifier is provided, the backtest will run from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-06, producing detailed performance metrics and a visual report to assess the strategy's viability.

Forward Outlook and Risk

While the RSI suggests a potential rebound in the short term, the prevailing bearish momentum and declining MAs hint that any correction may be limited. Investors should closely monitor the $1.16–$1.17 support range and be cautious of further breakdowns. A break below this level could extend the slide toward $1.14–$1.15. Traders should remain wary of divergences in volume and momentum indicators, which could signal either a continuation or a reversal.