Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Price dropped sharply from 1.225 to 1.150 but has since rebounded to close near 1.223.
• Strong volume spikes marked key turning points, especially in the early hours of the session.
• Momentum and volatility have increased, suggesting elevated near-term uncertainty.

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at 1.225 (12:00 ET − 1) and traded as low as 1.150 before closing at 1.223 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended between 1.225 and 1.150. Total trading volume amounted to approximately 1,784,040.19, while notional turnover was around $2,166,164. The price has shown increased volatility and momentum, reflecting mixed investor sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish breakdown from 1.225 to 1.150 during the session, followed by a strong bullish reversal. The price has formed several bullish engulfing patterns in the late hours, especially from 03:00 to 08:00 ET, suggesting accumulation or short-covering activity. Key support levels appear at 1.210 and 1.190, with resistance retesting 1.225 and 1.235 as the price attempts to reestablish strength.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed over multiple times, indicating choppy momentum. The 20SMA appears to be catching the price in the latter part of the session, especially as the price rebounds above 1.220. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200-day averages remain relatively flat, indicating a consolidation phase that has not yet resolved into a clear trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has swung from bearish to bullish, showing a strong reversal in momentum. The RSI is currently at 55, suggesting neutral momentum but with potential for a breakout. The RSI remains well above the 30 oversold threshold, indicating that the recent rally may have room to continue if buying pressure holds.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased as the price moved from the lower band to near the upper band in the 12-hour window. The recent price action shows it has remained within the bands for most of the session, but a break above 1.235 could signal a widening of the bands, reflecting increased uncertainty or market positioning for a move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the bearish leg from 1.225 to 1.150, suggesting conviction in the selloff. In the bullish phase, volume has been more moderate, indicating possible short-covering or cautious buying. Notional turnover has also followed the price trend, with larger spikes during key turning points. However, the divergence between volume and price during the rebound phase may indicate a possible exhaustion in the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 1.225 to 1.150, the 61.8% retracement level is at 1.209, which appears to have served as a short-term support. The price has now exceeded the 78.6% retracement at 1.224, suggesting a potential test of the 100% level at 1.225. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent move appears to be holding near 1.215.

Backtest Hypothesis

The inability to pull MACD data for AXS/USDT raises questions about the accuracy of relying on the MACD line for timing entries or exits. In such cases, a more robust alternative is to back-test the 50/200-day SMA death cross. This approach isolates bearish turning points by tracking when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA. If the data provider supports this setup, it could serve as a more stable and widely used proxy for market sentiment shifts. Alternatively, providing a list of past death-cross dates or a validated ticker symbol for AXS/USDT on a supported exchange (e.g., BINANCE:AXSUSDT) would allow for a direct back-test of the original MACD-based hypothesis.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

The current price action appears to be in a consolidation phase with mixed momentum. While the recent bullish reversal may signal a short-term rally, the market remains vulnerable to renewed selling if key resistance at 1.225 is not decisively cleared. Investors should remain cautious and monitor volume and RSI levels for signs of exhaustion. The next 24 hours may offer clarity on whether the market will attempt a breakout or retest support.