Axelar/Bitcoin Market Overview – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• Price fluctuated between 2.44e-6 and 2.66e-6 over 24 hours, closing near intraday lows.
• Strong bearish momentum emerged after the 19:30 ET spike to 2.66e-6, followed by sharp reversal.
• Volatility expanded during the 19:30–20:30 ET window, with heavy volume and mixed price action.
• RSI overbought conditions observed mid-day, followed by bearish divergence.
• Price tested key Fibonacci support levels at 2.52e-6 and 2.48e-6, failing to hold above 2.52e-6.

The Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) pair opened at 2.52e-6 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 2.66e-6. It closed at 2.43e-6 at 12:00 ET the following day, after hitting a 24-hour low of 2.44e-6. Total volume was 352,592.79 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $880,819.32 (assuming $36,500 for BTC).

Structure & Formations

AXLBTC experienced a bullish breakout around 19:30 ET, reaching 2.66e-6, followed by a sharp bearish reversal within the next 90 minutes. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 20:30–21:30 ET window, signaling potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. A key support level appears to have formed around 2.48e-6, where price stabilized on several occasions.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, indicating a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 100 and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the bearish trend. Price remains below all three, suggesting continued bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line during the afternoon, confirming bearish momentum. RSI showed overbought conditions mid-morning (reaching ~72), followed by a bearish divergence as price dropped and RSI fell below 40—indicating weakening bullish pressure. A potential oversold condition approached as RSI neared 30 in the late hours.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 19:30–20:30 ET period, with price reaching the upper band before plunging below the middle band. The lower band acted as temporary support at 2.48e-6 and 2.44e-6. A narrowing of the bands was observed during quieter hours, suggesting consolidation before the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:30–20:30 ET window, coinciding with the large bearish move from 2.66e-6 to 2.59e-6. Notional turnover also increased, confirming the bearish breakout. Divergence between price and volume appeared in the late evening, with volume decreasing as price continued to drop, suggesting potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 19:30 ET high at 2.66e-6 to the 04:15 ET low at 2.52e-6 were tested. The 38.2% retracement at 2.58e-6 held briefly before the price continued down to the 61.8% level at 2.57e-6, then to 2.48e-6. Price is currently near the 61.8% level from the larger daily move from 2.66e-6 to 2.44e-6.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be built around detecting bearish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI divergence and volume confirmation. A short entry could be triggered on a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss above the nearest resistance at 2.52e-6. Targets would include 2.44e-6 and beyond, with position sizing adjusted according to volatility. This approach aligns with the recent price behavior, where key levels and divergences were clearly visible and acted upon by market participants.