Avantis/Tether Market Overview

• Price dropped 6.3% in 24 hours, closing at 0.998 from 1.1337
• Volatility spiked midday, with a key 1.0936 low acting as temporary support
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential rebound
• Volume surged during the sharp decline, confirming bearish momentum

Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at 1.1337 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.1367, dropped to a 24-hour low of 0.9937, and closed at 0.998 at 2025-10-07 12:00 ET. Total volume was 17,538,203.9 units with a notional turnover of $17,496,833 (assuming $1 = 1 Tether).

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish breakdown from 1.11–1.13 resistance into oversold territory, with a sharp sell-off breaking key intraday support levels. Notable formations included a bearish engulfing pattern at 1.1133–1.1043, confirming downward bias. A long lower shadow at 1.0936–1.0901 suggested temporary buyers, but a doji at 1.0936 signaled indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period (1.0926) and 50-period (1.0955) MA, confirming bearish momentum. Daily averages (not shown here) would need to be analyzed, but given the sharp 24-hour drop, the 50- and 200-period DAs likely show a significant bearish crossover, reinforcing the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI closed at ~30, entering oversold territory, hinting at a potential bounce. However, MACD remained bearish with a negative histogram and a declining trend, suggesting that selling pressure could continue. The divergence between RSI and MACD implies a cautionary signal: while oversold, bearish momentum remains strong.

Bollinger Bands

Price fell below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating high volatility and a potential rebound. The band width had expanded during the sell-off, suggesting increased uncertainty. A retest of the 0.9937–0.998 level could trigger a short-term bounce, but a break below 0.990 could extend the downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline, particularly between 14:15–15:45 ET, when price fell from 1.0652 to 0.9967. This volume confirmed the bearish move rather than diverged from it. Turnover also spiked during this window, aligning with price action. The low-volume consolidation near the close suggests a temporary pause, but no immediate reversal signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level lies around 1.087, acting as a potential near-term support. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level is at ~1.065, where a deeper correction may test. A break below 0.9937 would likely extend the move toward the 61.8% level at ~0.987.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop just above the 50% level and a target at the 38.2% level. For AVNTUSDT, a short entry at 1.0652 with a stop at 1.0726 and a target at 1.052 could have captured a portion of the move to 0.9937. While not a guarantee, this setup aligns with the bearish bias, oversold RSI, and bearish MACD.