Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-08

• Price dropped from 1.0029 to 0.8957 amid bearish momentum and heavy volume.
• Key support at 0.8701–0.8723 and resistance at 0.9065–0.9218 identified.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, suggesting potential bounce.
• Volatility expanded during the 24-hour period with strong sell pressure.
• Bollinger Bands suggest price is near lower band, hinting at reversal potential.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08, Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at 1.0029, reached a high of 1.0128, and fell to a low of 0.8701, closing at 0.8957. Total volume amounted to 122,356,157.0 with a notional turnover of approximately 108,900,821.53 USDT. The price action over the past 24 hours reflects a bearish reversal with strong distribution pressure, especially from the early morning hours onward.

Structure & Formations

The price moved in a bearish channel over the past day, with key support forming around 0.8701–0.8723 and a retest of 0.9065–0.9218 marking a potential resistance cluster. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 00:00–00:15 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. A doji formed at 01:45 ET as price paused near 0.9215, hinting at indecision before the continued downward move. The structure suggests that traders are selling into strength and buying into weakness, with sellers dominating the narrative.

Moving Averages & Momentum

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish bias, with the price below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages throughout most of the day. A retest of the 20-period SMA at 0.9065 failed, confirming the bearish trend. The MACD has been negative for over half the day, with a recent contraction in the histogram suggesting potential exhaustion in the downside. The RSI dropped below 30 by 02:15 ET, reaching a low of 25.4, indicating oversold territory and a possible bounce. However, the RSI has yet to show a clear divergence, so caution is warranted before assuming a reversal is imminent.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility has expanded over the past 24 hours, with the Bollinger Bands widening after 00:00 ET. The price has spent the majority of the session near or below the lower band, especially from 00:15 to 07:00 ET. This suggests strong selling pressure and potential mean reversion. The most recent candle (16:00 ET) shows a contraction in volatility, with the close at 0.9093 near the middle band. This could signal a possible pause or consolidation phase before the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning sell-off (00:00–04:00 ET), with the 03:30–03:45 ET period seeing the largest volume at 1.32 million AVNT. The high volume at lower prices typically indicates distribution, suggesting that larger players were selling. However, from 08:00 to 16:00 ET, volume declined despite a modest price recovery, creating a divergence. This divergence could either confirm weakness or suggest a reversal, depending on how volume reacts to the next bounce attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price retraced 61.8% of the earlier bearish move (from 0.9303 to 0.8806) near 0.896, which was then rejected. This level now acts as a potential support. The 38.2% retracement is at 0.912, and a retest of this level could confirm the bearish scenario. On the daily timeframe, the 61.8% retracement of the recent low to high is near 0.93, and a move above that could signal a larger trend reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on a close below the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed at the nearest resistance level (0.9065). A long entry could be triggered when price bounces above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.896, with a target aligned to the 38.2% level at 0.912. Given the current oversold RSI and weak volume, this approach may favor shorting for the next few sessions, with a tight stop to manage risk in a volatile market.