Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-09-25

• Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) dropped sharply from $2.33 to $1.62 during the 24-hour period, showing extreme bearish momentum.
• Price found temporary support at $1.70–$1.75, but failed to rebound above $1.85.
• Turnover surged during the initial $2.33 peak but declined sharply after the breakdown, indicating reduced conviction.
• RSI reached oversold levels at the close, hinting at possible near-term rebound.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the early morning hours due to the sharp price drop.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-24, Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at $2.1213 and peaked at $2.3375 before closing at $1.7028 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The pair fell to a 24-hour low of $1.6197 amid heavy selling pressure. Total volume reached 24,598,464.19, and notional turnover was approximately $46.2 million, reflecting significant activity during the sharp decline.

Structure & Formations

The price action shows a strong bearish breakdown after a failed attempt to consolidate above $2.15. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the $2.14–$2.18 level around 21:00–22:00 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. Later, a long bearish candle at $1.99–$1.94 and another at $1.85–$1.77 confirmed the downward trend. A deep doji at $1.71–$1.74 suggests exhaustion near the $1.70 support area, but no strong reversal is confirmed yet.

Moving Averages & MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period SMAs both trended downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period SMA crossed below the 20-period line around 02:00 ET, signaling a bearish crossover. MACD remained negative throughout the session, with a large bearish histogram during the 03:00–04:00 ET window as price accelerated lower.

RSI & Bollinger Bands

RSI fell to 28 at the session low, entering oversold territory. However, it failed to bounce above 50, indicating weak buying interest. Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion during the sharp decline, with price hovering near the lower band for most of the session. A contraction was observed around 06:00–08:00 ET, hinting at a possible turning point.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning hours (03:00–05:00 ET) as price dropped from $2.05 to $1.98, and again during the 05:00–07:00 ET period as the pair fell to $1.85. However, during the final leg to $1.62, volume decreased, suggesting exhaustion. Turnover confirmed the volume trends, with the largest notional trade occurring during the $2.33 peak at 00:15 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the major swing high at $2.33 and low at $1.61 include 61.8% at $1.86 and 38.2% at $2.04. Price found brief support near the 61.8% level but failed to hold, suggesting a breakdown in multi-day trend dynamics.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a trend-following system triggered by the bearish engulfing pattern combined with a MACD crossover and RSI falling below 30. A sell signal is generated with a stop-loss placed above the 50-period SMA and a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the recent volatility, position sizing would be critical to manage risk, especially given the lack of a strong reversal signal at the close.