Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) Market Overview

• Price surged 16% from $29.74 to $30.75 amid strong volume in late trading.
• RSI hit overbought territory above 70, suggesting possible short-term consolidation.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near $30.20 after a sharp rebound from support.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, showing heightened volatility and trend acceleration.
• Turnover spiked in the last 3 hours, confirming accumulation ahead of key resistance.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $30.24 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET and closed at $30.75 by 2025-10-06 12:00 ET. The pair touched a high of $30.94 and a low of $29.74 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 767,152.49 AVAX, with a notional turnover of approximately $23.35 million, indicating significant participation and bullish sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a strong bullish reversal after the price broke below the $30.05 level, forming a bullish engulfing pattern at the $30.16–$30.20 range. This pattern appears to confirm a short-term rebound from a key support zone. Further north, the price tested the $30.80–30.94 resistance cluster, which coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the prior bearish swing. A breakout above $30.94 could trigger a fresh wave of momentum toward the $31.10 psychological level.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, forming a bullish crossover. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic support level, with the price bouncing off it multiple times. The MACD histogram remained positive and widening, confirming sustained buying pressure. RSI, which surged to over 75 by the close, suggests that the market may be in overbought conditions, potentially leading to a consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the last 4 hours of the 24-hour period, reflecting heightened volatility and a trend acceleration phase. The price has remained near the upper band for most of the session, suggesting a continuation of the upward bias. A pullback to the middle band could offer a re-entry point for trend-followers, especially if volume remains supportive.

Volume & Turnover

Notional turnover peaked sharply in the 4 hours leading up to 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06, with volume surging over $10 million in the 09:30–12:00 ET window. This aligns with the sharp price action between $30.50 and $30.94. However, the volume profile has become more uneven, with some overbought conditions in the last 3 candles. Divergence between rising price and flat volume could hint at potential profit-taking or short-covering.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart highlighted key support and resistance zones. The price found support at the 38.2% retracement level ($30.16–$30.20), and a strong rebound followed. On the daily timeframe, the 61.8% level at $30.94 has been tested multiple times and may now act as a pivot point. Traders should monitor the $31.00–$31.10 level as a potential trigger for the next leg of the move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on entries after a bullish engulfing pattern forms near key support levels. A long entry at the close of the engulfing candle, with a stop below the low of the pattern and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, could be tested using historical AVAXUSDT 15-minute data. This approach would aim to capture momentum-driven reversals, supported by MACD divergence and volume confirmation.