Aussie Home Prices to Rise Modestly in 2025 as Affordability Bites - Reuters Poll

The Australian housing market is expected to see modest home price growth in 2025, according to a Reuters poll, as affordability constraints and interest rate decisions temper the pace of price increases. The poll of 12 real estate analysts forecast home prices to rise 5.0% next year and in 2026, faster than in an August poll, but still below the 10% growth seen in 2023.

The median asking price of homes in Australia has increased by 54% between March 2020 and October 2024, reaching A$874,827 ($568,375), while average wage growth has lagged substantially. This affordability gap has made it increasingly difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market, with six out of 10 analysts surveyed saying affordability will worsen over the coming year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised interest rates from 0.10% to 4.35% since May 2022, increasing borrowing costs for homebuyers. While the RBA is expected to cut rates by 75 basis points next year, the extent of the cut and its impact on home prices remain uncertain. The high borrowing costs may limit buyer capacity, particularly for first-home buyers and those upgrading to more expensive properties.

The analysts who participated in the Reuters poll expect home prices to rise in all major cities in 2025, with Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth forecast to see the highest growth. However, the pace of price increases is likely to be tempered by affordability constraints and interest rate decisions.



The Australian government has pledged to build 1.2 million homes by 2030 to address the housing shortage, but the effectiveness of this policy in improving affordability remains to be seen. Additionally, changes in immigration policies and tax incentives may impact housing demand and prices in the coming years.

In conclusion, the Australian housing market is expected to see modest home price growth in 2025, driven by tight supply and an expected modest easing cycle from the RBA. However, affordability constraints and interest rate decisions are likely to temper the pace of price increases. The government's pledge to build 1.2 million homes by 2030 may help address the housing shortage, but its impact on affordability remains uncertain.