AUD/USD Forecast: Shy Away From Ceiling

The AUD/USD pair has long been a barometer of divergent monetary policy between Australia and the United States. As of late November 2025, the currency pair is trading near 0.6630–0.6635, a region where technical resistance and macroeconomic fundamentals are locked in a tug-of-war. While structural support-turned-resistance at 0.66247–0.6635 has capping upward momentum, broader macroeconomic trends suggest the AUD could yet test higher levels. However, a critical question remains: Can the pair overcome its near-term ceiling, or will technical breakdowns and divergent central bank policies conspire to keep it subdued?

Macroeconomic Divergence: A Tale of Two Central Banks

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) have charted starkly different paths in 2025. Australia's economy, operating near full capacity with 2.1% annual GDP growth and inflation at 3.5%, has prompted the RBA to maintain a hawkish bias, leaving its key rate at 3.6%. By contrast, the Fed faces a fragile labor market and delayed economic data due to a protracted government shutdown, leading to expectations of further rate cuts in 2026. This divergence has historically supported the AUD, pushing the pair to a three-week high in late 2025.

Yet, the RBA's conditional openness to future hikes-coupled with the Fed's dovish pivot-suggests the AUD/USD could continue strengthening if Australia's inflationary pressures persist according to market analysis. Australia's robust labor market and inflation above the RBA's target contrast sharply with the U.S.'s economic challenges, widening the policy gap. However, such macroeconomic tailwinds must contend with a deteriorating technical landscape.

Technical Resistance: A Bearish Bottleneck
Technically, the AUD/USD is in a precarious position. The pair has broken below both the 100-hour and 200-hour SMAs, shifting the short-term bias from "buy the dips" to "sell the rallies". A critical resistance ceiling at 0.6638-the 200-hour SMA-has proven insurmountable, with the daily swing high of 0.6645–0.6650 adding to the bearish narrative.

A breakdown below this level risks testing key Fibonacci retracement levels. The immediate target for sellers is the 38.2% level at 0.6584.

Meanwhile, a bullish reversal would require a sustained push above 0.6638 to negate the breakdown and retest the multi-month peak near 0.6685 according to technical analysis.

Compounding the bearish bias is a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart and a Supertrend indicator that has flipped below the price, reinforcing the likelihood of continued selling pressure. While hourly oscillators show negative momentum, the daily chart still clings to positive territory, suggesting caution for bearish bets ahead of a potential reversal.

Balancing Macro and Technicals: A Cautious Outlook

The AUD/USD's near-term trajectory hinges on resolving the tension between macroeconomic divergence and technical resistance. On one hand, the RBA's hawkish stance and Australia's strong economic fundamentals provide a floor for the AUD. On the other, the Fed's easing cycle and the AUD/USD's breakdown below key SMAs create a ceiling that could persist until critical resistance levels are decisively breached.

Investors should monitor the 0.6638 level as a pivotal battleground. A sustained close above this level could reignite bullish momentum, aligning with macroeconomic expectations of a stronger AUD. Conversely, a failure to hold above 0.6584 would likely deepen the bearish case, testing support zones near 0.6500. Given the mixed signals from technical indicators, a wait-and-see approach may be prudent until clarity emerges on both the macro and technical fronts.

In the broader context, the AUD/USD remains a compelling case study in how monetary policy divergence and technical dynamics can collide. For now, the pair appears content to "shy away from the ceiling," with its next move likely to be dictated by whether buyers can reclaim control of key resistance levels-or sellers consolidate their dominance.