ASX Value Stock Estimates: Unlocking Undervalued Opportunities in October 2025

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) has entered a pivotal phase in October 2025, marked by a subdued earnings outlook and a surge in undervalued opportunities. With Macquarie forecasting a mere 0.1% growth in ASX earnings for FY25-a stark contrast to earlier expectations of near 10%-investors are recalibrating their strategies to capitalize on mispriced assets, according to a Market Index wrap. This downward revision, driven by conservative guidance from sectors like Resources, Energy, and Healthcare, has created a fertile ground for value hunters. Below, we dissect the earnings revisions landscape and spotlight three fundamentally strong stocks trading at significant discounts to their intrinsic value.

Earnings Revisions: A Barometer of Market Sentiment

The August 2025 reporting season revealed a mixed bag of performances. While the ASX 300 Industrials delivered an 11 percentage point earnings beat-led by small-cap outperformers like Australian Clinical Labs and Aussie Broadband-larger firms adopted a cautious stance, downgrading FY26 guidance, as noted in the Market Index wrap. UBS analysts added that forward earnings revisions were heavily skewed to the downside, with five upgrades for every six downgrades in an ABC News report. This trend underscores a broader market skepticism, particularly toward global cyclicals grappling with tariffs and FX volatility. However, domestic cyclicals have outperformed, buoyed by expectations of RBA rate cuts and improving economic conditions, according to the Market Index wrap.

Unlocking Undervalued Opportunities

Infomedia (ASX:IFM): A Discounted Growth Story

Infomedia, a digital media and marketing services provider, trades at AU$1.30, a 37% discount to its estimated intrinsic value of AU$2.06, according to StockAnalysis statistics. Analysts project 20.05% annual earnings growth, outpacing the Australian market's average. Despite a forward P/E of 22.69-above the ASX 200 average-its valuation remains attractive given its robust cash flow generation and expanding digital footprint. The company's enterprise value of AU$558.71 million reflects a market that has yet to fully price in its long-term potential.

Immutep (ASX:IMM): A High-Risk, High-Reward Biotech Play

Immutep, a biotechnology firm, trades at AU$0.28, a 44.7% discount to its estimated fair value of AU$0.50, a gap highlighted in the Market Index wrap. While the company reported a net loss of AU$61.43 million in the year ending June 2025, its pipeline of immunotherapy candidates offers a path to profitability within three years, according to the Market Index wrap. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01 and revenue growth exceeding 100% annually, Immutep's risk profile is balanced by its potential to disrupt oncology markets, as detailed in the Market Index wrap.

Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC): A Cyclical Bet on Commodity Demand

Nickel Industries, a diversified mining and metals company, trades at AU$0.76, undervalued by 30.9% relative to its discounted cash flow estimate of AU$1.10, according to the Market Index wrap. The company's H1 2025 results showed US$11.27 million in net income, driven by improved nickel prices and operational efficiency, as reported in the Market Index wrap. While its return on equity (-7.04%) and net margin (-9.39%) remain negative, its 55% annual earnings growth forecast positions it as a compelling play on the global energy transition, per the Market Index wrap.

Strategic Considerations for Value Investors

The current earnings environment demands a nuanced approach. While conservative guidance has depressed forward estimates, it also creates a margin of safety for investors willing to bet on a domestic economic recovery. Companies like Infomedia and Nickel Industries exemplify this duality: their valuations reflect near-term challenges but hint at untapped growth. Meanwhile, Immutep's steep discount to fair value warrants careful scrutiny of its R&D pipeline and regulatory risks.

As the ASX navigates a landscape of uncertainty, value investors are advised to prioritize stocks with strong balance sheets, clear catalysts for earnings upgrades, and alignment with macroeconomic trends. With the RBA poised to cut rates and global demand for critical minerals intensifying, the third quarter of 2025 could mark a turning point for these undervalued names.