AstraZeneca Shares Plunge 5.36% Amid Bearish Technical Breakdown

AstraZeneca Technical Analysis
Recent trading saw AstraZeneca (AZN) decline by 3.49%, marking its third consecutive down day and resulting in a 5.36% loss over this period. This sell-off occurred on elevated volume compared to the two prior sessions, suggesting increased capitulation. The close near the session low ($70.98 vs. low of $70.92) signifies strong selling pressure.
Candlestick Theory
The current three-day pattern resembles a bearish Three Black Crows formation, characterized by consecutive long-bodied red (or black) candles closing near their lows. This pattern occurring near the June high (~$74.98 on June 13th) highlights that level as significant resistance. The breakdown below the consolidation range formed between roughly $72.50 and $74.98 over the prior two weeks confirms a failed upside attempt. Immediate support is evident at the recent low ($70.92). A decisive breach below this opens the door towards the psychological $70 level and the more significant swing low near $68.64 (May 19th). Resistance now solidifies between $73.50 (June 16th high) and $75.00.
Moving Average Theory
Price action confirms a bearish near-term outlook, trading well below all key moving averages. The 50-day MA crossing decisively below the 100-day MA (around current prices) signals a bearish Death Cross, reinforcing weakening medium-term momentum. More significantly, the price has plunged below the critical long-term 200-day MA (estimated around $73.80-74.00) during the recent sell-off. The sustained position below all these averages ($70.98 current vs. ~$73+ averages) suggests strong downward pressure across short, medium, and long-term timeframes. The slope of the 200-day MA is flattening, potentially transitioning from support to resistance.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD line resides deep in negative territory and continues to diverge further below its signal line, exhibiting strong bearish momentum with no immediate signs of reversal. Histogram bars are increasingly negative, confirming this bearish acceleration. The KDJ indicator shows potential early divergence: while price has made consecutive lower lows during the 3-day drop, the K and D lines may be starting to flatten or show a minor upward hook near oversold territory (current K/D ~30-35). However, this nascent divergence is weak and not confirmed; the J line remains below 20, reflecting oversold conditions that could precede a short-term bounce if momentum shifts.
Bollinger Bands
Recent volatility expansion is evident. The price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band ($71.40-$71.80 band estimation), typically signaling an oversold condition and a potential short-term reversal point or consolidation. However, the sustained move below it emphasizes strong downward momentum. Band width is increasing sharply, confirming the rise in volatility driven by the sharp sell-off. The lower band now represents overhead resistance, approximately at $71.40-$71.80. A close back inside the bands is needed for stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
The decline has been validated by increasing volume. The three consecutive down days saw progressively higher volume (3.41M -> 3.77M), culminating in the highest volume day in the recent series. This distribution volume pattern indicates strong conviction from sellers during the breakdown. The lack of significant volume on any potential minor up days within the preceding consolidation (e.g., June 9th, 12th) suggested weak buying interest and foreshadowed this breakdown.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Based on the significant closing declines, the 14-period RSI is estimated to be approximately 36, moving down from the mid-40s. This places it below the neutral 50 line but still above the oversold threshold of 30. It indicates bearish momentum without being severely oversold yet. While the trend remains decisively down, approaching the 30 level could signal a potential exhaustion point for sellers in the immediate term, though it should be considered a warning signal only if corroborated by other indicators like bullish volume or reversal candlesticks. Momentum strongly favors the downside currently.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracements to the significant swing high ($75.38 on June 12th) and the swing low ($68.64 on May 19th) provides key reference points. A breach below the consolidation meant the price failed to hold the 50% retracement level ($72.01). The current price ($70.98) sits near the 38.2% retracement (~$70.89), making this level critical short-term support. A decisive break below significantly increases the probability of a retest of the 23.6% retracement (~$69.78) and the prior swing low ($68.64). Downside confluence exists around $68.80-$70.00 (previous low and Fibonacci). Resistance levels are found at the 50% level ($72.01), the recent consolidation base near $72.50, and the 61.8% level ($73.23).
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Strong confluence exists around the current price point ($70.98) as support. The price sits near the key 38.2% Fibonacci level ($70.89) and the intraday low ($70.92). The overshoot of the lower Bollinger Band and weak KDJ hint at potential near-term exhaustion, though the sustained high-volume selling, bearish MACD, and death cross strongly counterbalance. The major confluence supporting the bearish trend includes the price below all key moving averages with a confirmed death cross, negative MACD acceleration, volume confirming the breakdown, and RSI <50. The only minor divergence arises from the slightly improving KDJ while the price continues lower. Overall, technicals lean heavily bearish. A bounce may be possible near the $70.90/$70 level, but the path of least resistance currently points lower towards $69.78 and ultimately $68.64 support, unless price reclaims the $72.00-$72.50 resistance zone convincingly.