ASTERUSDT Market Overview

• ASTER/USDT traded in a bearish trend with a sharp correction from $1.84 to $1.295 during the 24-hour period.
• Momentum weakened after a short-lived rally in mid-session, with RSI indicating oversold territory.
• Volatility spiked during the sell-off, with high volume confirming the downward move.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the decline, suggesting increased uncertainty in the market.
• A potential support level emerged near $1.33–$1.35 as price bounced off this range after the correction.

Opening and 24-Hour Summary

Aster/Tether (ASTERUSDT) opened at $1.56 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and traded between a high of $1.846 and a low of $0.984 before closing at $1.35 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. The pair posted a bearish 24-hour candle with a close of $1.35. Total volume for the period was approximately 192,831,580, and the notional turnover was significant, particularly during the midday sell-off.

Structure & Formations

The price action showed a strong bearish bias with a sharp correction from $1.84 to $1.295. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around $1.75–$1.72, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji appeared near the 1.36 level, indicating indecision and potential short-term support. The price has since found a temporary bottom at $1.29–$1.35, with a possible double-bottom formation forming near this range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both turned downward, confirming the bearish momentum. The price remains below both lines, with the 50SMA acting as a key resistance level during rebounds. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA lines all appear to be declining, aligning with the broader bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and remains in a bearish divergence, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line to confirm the downtrend. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory (below 30), but without a clear reversal candlestick, it may not trigger a bounce. A potential oversold rebound could be seen as a short-term buying opportunity, though caution is advised as the trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sell-off, indicating a high-volatility period. Price has since bounced and consolidated near the mid-band around $1.33–$1.35, suggesting a temporary pause in the move lower. A break above the upper band could signal a short-term bounce, but this is unlikely without strong volume and confirmation from other indicators.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the midday sell-off, particularly when price dropped from $1.84 to $1.484, with notional turnover reaching multi-million levels. However, buying interest has weakened in the latter half of the session, with volume and turnover declining. A divergence between price and volume during the consolidation phase suggests the bearish momentum may be waning slightly, though confirmation is needed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $1.846 to $1.295, key levels at 38.2% ($1.56) and 61.8% ($1.43) appear to have been tested but rejected. The daily chart shows similar retracement levels aligning with key support and resistance zones. A potential 61.8% retracement on the short-term move could bring price to $1.37–$1.39, which may be a key area for near-term buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on ASTERUSDT after a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern and a close below a key moving average (e.g., 50SMA), with a stop-loss placed above a recent swing high. The strategy would target a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement for a profit target. Given the current price structure and indicator alignment, this approach may be suitable for the next 24-hour period, with the RSI in oversold territory offering some caution for potential short-covering rallies.