Astera's 7.40% Rally Triggers Bullish Candle and Golden Cross as RSI Hits Overbought 72

Candlestick Theory

Astera’s recent 7.40% rally on 2025-09-10 forms a strong bullish candle with a long upper wick, suggesting aggressive buying pressure. Key support levels appear at 174.24 (previous low on 2025-09-02) and 167.5 (prior low on 2025-09-02), while resistance is evident at 217 (prior high on 2025-09-10). A breakdown below 174.24 may trigger further declines, while a sustained close above 230.88 could signal a continuation of the uptrend.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is reinforced by the 50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA, forming a golden cross, while the 100-day MA acts as a dynamic support near 190. Long-term trends remain bullish, with the 200-day MA at 185. However, the 50-day MA’s recent steep rise (currently at 200) suggests accelerated buying. A pullback to the 100-day MA could offer a re-entry opportunity, but a close below the 200-day MA would invalidate the bullish case.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has expanded positively, with the MACD line above the signal line, confirming upward momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows overbought conditions (K=85, D=78), suggesting a potential near-term correction. Divergence between MACD and KDJ, however, indicates the uptrend may persist despite overbought levels. Caution is warranted if the RSI fails to confirm the KDJ’s bearish signal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening to 30.88 (upper band at 230.88) and 177.5 (lower band at 177.5). The current price near the upper band suggests a high-probability reversion to the 210–200 range. A break below the lower band would signal a shift in volatility dynamics, potentially triggering a selloff.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume surged to 6.2 million shares on the 7.40% rally, validating the move higher. However, declining volume in subsequent sessions (e.g., 4.7 million on 2025-09-09) may indicate weakening conviction. Sustained volume above 5 million shares per session would reinforce bullish momentum, while a drop below 3 million could signal exhaustion.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has spiked to 72, entering overbought territory. While this may precede a pullback, the RSI’s rapid ascent from 40 to 72 in three days suggests strong institutional buying. A failure to retreat below 60 would imply the uptrend remains intact, whereas a close below 50 would likely trigger profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 167.5–230.88 swing show 61.8% retracement at 198.5 and 38.2% at 206.5. The current price near 230.37 suggests a potential retest of the 198.5 level before resuming the uptrend. A breakdown below 198.5 would target 185 (the 50% level), aligning with the 200-day MA.

Backtest Hypothesis

A mean-reversion strategy using RSI and MACD could be tested: enter long when RSI dips below 30 and MACD crosses above the signal line, or short when RSI exceeds 70 and MACD crosses below. Historical data from 2025-08–2025-09 show mixed results—e.g., a 7.40% rally on 2025-09-10 followed by a 0.75% decline the next day. While the strategy may capture short-term reversals, its efficacy in a strong uptrend like Astera’s remains uncertain, with confluence between MACD and RSI signals likely reducing false positives.