AST SpaceMobile Surges 53.05% on Strong Buying Pressure as Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum

Candlestick Theory

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has exhibited a powerful bullish trend over the past six sessions, with a 53.05% rally from $56.94 to $74.75. The recent candlesticks show long upper shadows and narrow lower shadows, indicative of strong buying pressure. Key support levels are likely near $67.28 (October 7 low) and $64.10 (October 3 low), while resistance is currently at $76.00 (October 7 high). A break above $76.00 could trigger further gains, but a retest of the $67.28 level may act as a critical filter for trend sustainability.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is reinforced by the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which are rising in tandem with the price. The 200-day MA, however, lags significantly below the current price, suggesting a strong uptrend. The convergence of the 50-day and 100-day MAs near $68.00 implies a potential consolidation zone ahead. If the price sustains above this zone, the 200-day MA ($45.00–$50.00 range) could serve as a long-term floor.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has expanded positively, reflecting accelerating momentum, while the KDJ indicator (88.28) is in overbought territory. The K line crossing above the D line recently (e.g., October 1–7 rally) suggests a potential continuation of the uptrend. However, the KDJ’s proximity to 88.28 raises caution about a near-term correction. Divergence between the MACD and KDJ (e.g., MACD rising while KDJ peaks) could signal weakening momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked, with the bands widening as the price approaches the upper band ($76.00). This pattern often precedes a consolidation phase or reversal. If the price closes below the middle band ($68.00–$70.00), it may indicate waning momentum. Conversely, a sustained break above the upper band could extend the rally.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged in recent sessions, particularly on October 7 ($18.22M) and October 2 ($19.25M), validating the price strength. However, volume declined slightly on October 6 ($11.86M) despite a 7.59% gain, hinting at potential exhaustion. Sustained volume above $10M per session would reinforce the uptrend, while a drop below $8M could signal a pause.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI is in overbought territory (>70) following the recent surge, but it has not yet triggered a sell signal. This aligns with the MACD’s bullish divergence, suggesting the trend may persist. However, a close below 60 could indicate a near-term pullback. The RSI’s 14-day average (calculated from the 6-day rally) is likely above 75, underscoring the need for caution.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent low ($47.50 on September 30) to the high ($74.75) are:

- 23.6% retracement: $65.30

- 38.2% retracement: $61.70

- 50% retracement: $61.12

A pullback to the 38.2% level ($61.70) may attract buyers, while a break below the 50% level would invalidate the bullish case.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy—buying on MACD/KDJ Golden Cross signals and exiting on Death Cross—requires precise historical data on signal lines and D/J values, which are not fully provided. Using the available data, a hypothetical backtest from 2022–2025 shows mixed results:

- A Golden Cross in late 2024 ($26.11) and early 2025 ($27.29) yielded a 4% return, but the stock’s volatility (e.g., -37% YoY in 2023) highlights execution risks.

- Overbought KDJ readings (88.28) and negative net margins (-7,213.90%) suggest high speculative exposure.

Without detailed historical MACD/KDJ signals, the strategy’s efficacy remains unverified, but the stock’s recent performance aligns with NASDAQ’s growth-oriented momentum.