AST SpaceMobile aumenta un 9.5% gracias al lanzamiento de satélites y al impulso del sector. ¿Es este el inicio de una nueva fase de crecimiento?

Summary
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) surges 9.5% to $99.17, hitting a 52-week high of $101.50
• BlueBird 6 satellite launch and AT&T partnership drive optimism
• Scotiabank downgrades to Underperform with $45.60 price target
• Options frenzy: 20 contracts traded with 113%-161% implied volatility spikes

AST SpaceMobile’s stock is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally, fueled by a successful satellite deployment and strategic partnerships. With a 9.5% surge to $99.17, the stock has pierced its 52-week high of $102.79, driven by a mix of technical progress and sector-wide momentum in satellite communications. The launch of BlueBird 6, coupled with AT&T’s integration of ASTS’ technology into FirstNet, has ignited investor enthusiasm. However, a bearish downgrade from Scotiabank and a volatile options chain suggest a tug-of-war between bullish momentum and skepticism.

BlueBird 6 Launch and AT&T Partnership Ignite Short-Term Optimism
AST SpaceMobile’s 9.5% intraday surge is directly tied to the successful deployment of BlueBird 6, its largest commercial satellite to date. The 2,400-square-foot phased array antenna, launched via ISRO’s LVM3 rocket, represents a 10x capacity leap over previous satellites and enables direct-to-cell connectivity at 120 Mbps. This milestone validates ASTS’ transition to scaled manufacturing and strengthens its partnerships with AT&T and Verizon. AT&T’s activation of a fourth satellite ground gateway and integration into FirstNet further underscore the commercial viability of ASTS’ technology. However, the rally coincides with a bearish downgrade from Scotiabank, which argues the stock is overvalued given low ARPU and high capital requirements. The stock’s sharp move reflects a clash between technical progress and skepticism about execution risks.

Satellite Communications Sector Gains Momentum Amid Defense and 5G Expansion
The satellite communications sector is experiencing a surge in activity, with competitors like Sierra Space and Eutelsat advancing military and commercial projects. Sierra Space recently completed nine satellite structures for the SDA’s Tranche 2 Tracking Layer, while Eutelsat pitches Canada on a $250M sovereign satellite broadband initiative. ASTS’ focus on direct-to-cell connectivity differentiates it from traditional satellite providers, aligning with 5G expansion and defense modernization. However, the sector faces challenges, including China’s growing ISR satellite fleet and reusable rocket failures by competitors like LandSpace. ASTS’ rally reflects sector-wide optimism but must contend with execution risks and geopolitical headwinds.

Options Volatility and Technicals Signal High-Risk, High-Reward Setup
• 200-day average: $50.12 (far below current price)
• RSI: 66.62 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 5.595 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $97.36 (upper), $78.47 (middle), $59.58 (lower)
• Support/Resistance: 72.36–73.25 (30D), 23.17–24.72 (200D)

ASTS’ technicals suggest a continuation of its short-term bullish trend, with RSI near overbought territory and MACD divergence indicating momentum. The stock is trading near its upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential pullback. However, the 200-day average is far below current levels, indicating long-term upside potential. The options chain is highly volatile, with 20 contracts traded and implied volatility ratios ranging from 105% to 161%.

Top Options Picks:
• ASTS20260116C85 (Call):
- Strike: $85, Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 140.78% (high volatility), Leverage: 6.54%, Delta: 0.8058 (high sensitivity), Theta: -0.6870 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.01327 (moderate sensitivity to price changes), Turnover: 274,699
- Payoff (5% upside): $14.60 (max(0, 104.13 - 85))
- This call option offers aggressive leverage for a continued rally, with high delta and gamma amplifying gains if ASTS breaks above $90.
• ASTS20260116P90 (Put):
- Strike: $90, Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 105.64% (moderate volatility), Leverage: 47.36%, Delta: -0.2348 (moderate bearishness), Theta: -0.1642 (slow time decay), Gamma: 0.01975 (high sensitivity to price changes), Turnover: 403,924
- Payoff (5% downside): $5.45 (max(0, 90 - 94.13))
- This put offers downside protection if the rally falters, with high gamma to capitalize on volatility swings.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should consider ASTS20260116C85 for a breakout above $90, while cautious investors may hedge with ASTS20260116P90. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and sector momentum suggest a high-risk, high-reward trade, but watch for a breakdown below $85 to trigger a reversal.

Backtest AST SpaceMobile Stock Performance
The performance of ASTS after a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to now has been backtested, revealing the following key points:1. Strategy Overview: The strategy involves buying ASTS at the close when the daily close is 10% higher than the previous close, and selling when a 30% profit is reached, a 10% stop-loss is hit, or after 10 trading days.2. Backtest Results: The strategy had a total return of -29.6% across all trades, but an annualized return of +69.6%, indicating significant volatility but potential for high returns in short holding periods.3. Key Takeaways: - The strategy showed a high win rate of approximately 38% with an average one-day return of -1.3% following a plunge event. - The average five-day return was +6.5% after a plunge event, though dispersion was high and statistical significance was weak.In conclusion, while the strategy demonstrated some success in capturing intraday surges, its performance was heavily influenced by market volatility, resulting in significant drawdowns and mixed overall returns. The high annualized return reflected the strategy's potential for short-term gains but also highlighted its risk, as evidenced by the total return of -29.6%.

ASTS at a Pivotal Crossroads: Ride the Momentum or Hedge the Volatility?
AST SpaceMobile’s 9.5% surge reflects a critical juncture for the stock, driven by technical progress and sector momentum but shadowed by bearish analyst sentiment. The BlueBird 6 launch and AT&T partnership validate ASTS’ commercial potential, yet execution risks and a volatile options chain highlight the need for caution. Investors should monitor the $90 level as a key inflection point: a breakout could extend the rally toward $102.79, while a breakdown may trigger a pullback to $85. For now, the stock’s technicals and sector dynamics favor a bullish bias, but the high implied volatility in options suggests a volatile near-term path. Action: Consider ASTS20260116C85 for aggressive upside or ASTS20260116P90 for downside protection. Watch for a $90 breakout or breakdown to dictate next steps.