Ast Spacemobile's Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Contradictions Emerge in Spectrum Strategy, Launch Schedules, and Capital Financing

Date of Call: None provided

Financials Results

• Revenue: $14.7M GAAP revenue in Q3 2025 (approx. $15M), up from ~ $2M in Q2 2025; company reiterates second-half 2025 revenue target of $50–$75M.

Guidance:

• Second-half 2025 revenue expected to be $50–$75M; Q4 revenue driven by gateway sales, U.S. government milestones, and initial commercial service.
• Q4 2025 adjusted OPEX (ex-COGS) expected in the mid-$60M range; Q4 CapEx expected $275–$325M.
• Five orbital launches expected by end of Q1 2026; intermittent nationwide service early 2026; target 45–60 satellites by end of 2026.
• ASIC integration into Block 2 in Q1 2026 to enable peak ~120 Mbps per user.
• Manufacturing cadence to reach ~6 satellites/month and complete ~40 satellites by early 2026.

Business Commentary:

* Revenue and Financial Progress: - AST SpaceMobile reported GAAP revenue of $14.7 million in Q3, driven by gateway hardware sales and government service milestones. - The company expects second-half 2025 revenue in the range of $50-$75 million. - Growth was supported by significant commercial and government initiatives, including commercial agreements and U.S. government contracts.

• Commercial Partnerships and Spectrum Strategy:
• AST SpaceMobile secured over $1 billion in total contracted revenue commitments from commercial partners.
• The company acquired global S-band spectrum priority rights and L-band spectrum in the U.S., expanding its spectrum portfolio to over 80 megahertz of high-quality spectrum in the U.S.

• These agreements and spectrum acquisitions facilitate partnerships with leading mobile network operators and enhance AST SpaceMobile's spectrum capabilities.

• Manufacturing and Launch Progress:

• By early 2026, AST SpaceMobile plans to complete 40 satellites equivalent of micron, with ongoing manufacturing at a rate of six satellites per month.
• Five orbital launches are planned by the end of Q1 2026, and 45-60 satellites are expected to be launched by the end of 2026.

• The company is leveraging 95% vertical integration in manufacturing and expanding its manufacturing footprint to support satellite production and launch cadence.

• Capital Raise and Financial Strength:

• AST SpaceMobile raised approximately $3.2 billion in cash and liquidity post-transactions, including convertible note offerings and ATM facilities.
• This capital raise ensures the company is fully funded for the manufacturing and launch of a constellation of over 100 satellites.
• The financial strength supports AST's ongoing commercial and government initiatives, as well as the acceleration of its commercial activities.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management highlighted “over $1 billion in total contracted revenue commitments,” pro forma cash and liquidity of “over $3.2 billion,” Q3 GAAP revenue of $14.7M, manufacturing cadence target of six satellites/month, and an expectation of intermittent nationwide service by early 2026 — all signaling constructive commercial and funding momentum.

Q&A:

• Question from Kevin (Shareholder): What is the difference in processing capacity between Block 2 FPGA satellites and Block 2 ASICs?
  Response: Processing capacity has increased roughly tenfold at each stage: BlueWalker 3 ~100 MHz → current ~1 GHz → upcoming Block 2 ~9–10 GHz enabled by AST5000 ASIC; AI further multiplies effective capacity.

• Question from Alvin (Shareholder): Is the company weighing the benefits of AI for its spectrum management?
  Response: Yes — they are implementing an AI engine to dynamically manage spectrum/power allocation across satellites to multiply effective capacity.

• Question from Kevin (Shareholder): Will AST structure future launch events for retail shareholders?
  Response: Yes — management plans to invite retail investors to launches, similar to prior events where ~1,000 retail investors attended.

• Question from Ruper (Shareholder): If fully funded for initial constellation, why raise additional capital?
  Response: Additional financing provides flexibility to accelerate timelines and expand beyond the 45–60-satellite plan toward a fully funded 100+ satellite global constellation.

• Question from Michael Funk (Bank of America): What is your appetite for future prepayment deals and details on prepayment contracts?
  Response: Strategy unchanged — continue to pursue prepayments and long-term revenue commitments; prepayments fund near-term commercial services and terms vary by partner and timing.

• Question from Mike Crawford (B. Riley Securities): Will you put L-band and S-band on the same satellites and were you awaiting FCC approval before manufacturing?
  Response: Satellites are designed to support 3GPP low- and mid-band including MSS L- and S-band; plan to interleave low- and mid-band payloads and are funded to deploy mid-band satellites per roadmap.

• Question from Mike Crawford (B. Riley Securities): For STC, spectrum used and are there additional revenue commitments beyond the $175M prepayment?
  Response: STC will use operator spectrum already in devices; the STC agreement includes a $175M prepayment plus a significant long-term revenue commitment; company-wide disclosure of >$1B commitments comprises definitive agreements.

• Question from Bryan D. Kraft (Deutsche Bank): Confidence in five launches by end-Q1 2026 and 60 satellites by end of next year; are EU satellites incremental; comment on IRIS2?
  Response: Confident — manufacturing target of ~40 satellites by early 2026 and six/month cadence support launch plan; EU/Vodafone satellites are part of existing plan (not incremental); no comment on IRIS2 awards but company says it is well positioned.

• Question from Colin Canfield (Cantor Fitzgerald): How do you view aperture for additional bands and economies of scale versus European supply-chain issues?
  Response: Platform is software-defined across ~1,000 MHz tunable 3GPP bands; incremental activation of bands is largely software-defined with marginal cost; manufacturing is U.S.-based while partnering with local MNOs for spectrum.

• Question from Chris LaShoal (UBS): Will you remain opportunistic on capital raises and is Q4 a decent OpEx/CapEx run-rate for 2026 modeling?
  Response: They will remain opportunistic but focus is commercial (prepayments/commitments); OpEx should be roughly stable around mid-$60M (ex-COGS) while CapEx will fluctuate with launch payment timing.

• Question from Louis Di Palma (William Blair): Is ~25 satellites a good estimate to support North America beta trials and what is duration of the $1B commitments?
  Response: Yes — ~25 satellites is a reasonable proxy for enabling beta/limited trials in North America; commitments vary by contract (mix of short-, medium-, and long-term, e.g., STC is 10 years).

• Question from Greg Pendy (Clear Street): How many large MNO opportunities remain given current 50 MNOs (~3B subs)?
  Response: Most global operators are potential partners (excluding China/Russia per company stance); the pipeline is broad and management expects continued conversion as service nears.

• Question from Chris Quilty (Quilty Space): Is the >$1B in commitments all commercial or mixed with government; and how will government engagements be structured?
  Response: The >$1B disclosed is all commercial; for government work they favor dual-use commercial-built/operated models but may deliver bespoke government assets when required.

• Question from Chris Quilty (Quilty Space): Visibility on launch vehicles and satellites per launch?
  Response: Current manifest uses SpaceX, New Glenn, and international partners; additional launch capacity is expected to come online; approximate payloads: ~3 per Falcon 9 and up to ~8 per New Glenn.

• Question from Scott Searle (ROTH Capital Partners): Will you continue building from initial 45–60 toward 90–100+ satellites and how do you view incremental international spectrum costs?
  Response: Yes — expansion beyond initial phase will be evaluated on a rolling basis driven by commercial traction and capital; incremental spectrum costs are marginal as platform is software-defined and focused on spectrum already in devices.

Contradiction Point 1

Spectrum Strategy and Acquisition

It involves the company's strategy regarding spectrum acquisition and utilization, which is crucial for network capabilities and service offerings.

Will you continue to raise capital opportunistically as you approach 2026? - Chris Lashoal (UBS)

2025Q3: We have both S-Band and L-Band spectrum rights, enhancing global network capabilities by combining them with telco partners' spectrum. - Abel Avellan(Founder, Chairman & CEO)

Is the S-Band spectrum sufficient for your needs, or will there be additional purchases? - Chris (UBS)

2025Q2: Our spectrum is sufficient for our needs, providing the desired data rates for global services. It allows us to offer services in spectrum bands around the world. - Abel Avellan(Founder, Chairman & CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Launch Cadence and Independence

It pertains to the company's launch schedule and the independence of its launches, which are critical for operational planning and investor expectations.

Will you combine L-band and S-band on the same satellites when manufacturing L-band satellites? Also, did you await FCC approval before starting production? - Mike Crawford (B. Riley Securities)

2025Q3: Plans are to interleave low band and mid-band frequencies, including L and S bands, which we have acquired. We aim to launch mid-band satellites by the end of 2026, aligning with our strategic roadmap. This is fully funded now. - Mike Crawford(Analyst)

Will BlueBird 2 satellites be launched in a batch before ISRO's launch? - Griffin (B. Riley Securities)

2025Q2: The launches are independent and spaced over multiple quarters. The launch cadence is planned separately from ISRO. - Abel Avellan(Founder, Chairman & CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Launch Schedule and Strategy

It involves changes in launch schedules and strategy, which are critical for the company's expansion and investor expectations.

With the compressed timeline, is there any risk to meeting five launches by Q1 and 60 satellites by next year? How does the EU satellite constellation announcement impact this? - Bryan D. Kraft(Deutsche Bank)

2025Q3: We feel very confident in our launch campaign. We have manufactured satellites to match launch commitments. The EU satellite constellation is part of our existing plan, not incremental. - Brian D. Kraft(Analyst)

How many satellites are included in the first five launches, and which providers will be used? - Bryan Kraft(Deutsche Bank)

2025Q1: Our strategy is multi-launch-provider and multi-satellite, with plans to launch multiple satellites per launch. Our first launch will only have one satellite, but we are overproducing to ensure we meet our timelines. - Scott Wisniewski(President & Chief Strategy Officer)

Contradiction Point 4

Capital Financing Strategy

It involves the company's strategy for funding launches and expansion, which impacts financial stability and investor confidence.

Will you continue opportunistic capital raises as you enter 2026? - Chris Lashoal(UBS)

2025Q3: We are fully funded for a 100+ satellite constellation. Capital is available to pull launches forward if opportunities arise, but our focus remains on commercial activity. We evaluate opportunities on equity and debt sides. - Andy Johnson(CFO and Chief Legal Officer)

What are the capital requirements for launching 60 satellites and what financing options are available? - Chris Schoell(UBS)

2025Q1: We are focused on non-dilutive financing and expect to leverage capital from IFC, EXIM, and contract payments to fund launches. We aim to secure non-dilutive capital to meet our launch targets. - Andrew Johnson(CFO & Chief Legal Officer)

Contradiction Point 5

Spectrum and Network Strategy

It involves the company's strategy for spectrum acquisition and integration, which impacts network capabilities and competitive positioning.

How open are you to additional bands beyond SL and C-band? - Colin Canfield(Cantor Fitzgerald)

2025Q3: Our platform is designed to capture 1,000 megahertz of spectrum. We can tune into any 3GPP band in devices, with marginal incremental cost. - Colin Canfield(Analyst)

How is AST planning for Europe given the major power outage in Spain and Portugal on April 28? - Marillio from Portugal

2025Q1: Our service can provide cellular broadband connectivity directly to phones, ensuring safety during emergencies like power outages. - Scott Wisniewski(President & Chief Strategy Officer)